Reliability Evaluation for a Stochastic Flow Network Based on Upper and Lower Boundary Vectors

Abstract

For stochastic flow network (SFN), given all the lower (or upper) boundary points, the classic problem is to calculate the probability that the capacity vectors are greater than or equal to the lower boundary points (less than or equal to the upper boundary points). However, in some practical cases, SFN reliability would be evaluated between the lower and upper boundary points at the same time. The evaluation of SFN reliability with upper and lower boundary points at the same time is the focus of this paper. Because of intricate relationships among upper and lower boundary points, a decomposition approach is developed to obtain several simplified subsets. SFN reliability is calculated according to these subsets by means of the inclusion-exclusion principle. Two heuristic options are then established in order to calculate SFN reliability in an efficient direction based on the lower and upper boundary points.