影響壽險解約行為因素之實證分析

Abstract

在本文中我們區分壽險保單解約率的主動解約（surrender）及被動失效（lapse），以呼應既有文獻之於解約行為具主動及被動因素的實證發現。通過檢驗解約率文獻中的三個假說（利率假說、緊急資金假說、保單替代假說），本文的研究結果呈現，保單替代假說最能解釋次貸危機后美國壽險市場的解約行為。進一步的實證結果發現，實際人均收入及名義人均收入都對主動解約行為存在顯著一致的負向影響，體現保單的主動解約行為免疫於名義收入之增加所伴隨的貨幣幻覺，主動解約保戶因而具備較高的財務素養。此外，無論是基於現金或是件數的解約率詮釋，本文發現被動解約行為皆受失業率及州65歲及以上人口比例顯著負向影響，體現面臨經濟不確定性時被動解約行為的減少，對保單所提供的保障其需求增加。

In support of prior empirical findings that document lapsation as driven by both endogenous and exogenous factors, in this article we consider lapsation as jointly determined by the policy holders' voluntary surrender and non-voluntary lapse rates. By verifying the Interest Rate Hypothesis, the Emergency Fund Hypothesis, and the Policy Replacement Hypothesis (PRH) that are pertinent to the life-insurance lapsation literature, our empirical findings suggest that the PRH can best explain the termination behavior in the American life insurance market after the subprime mortgage crisis. Further empirical outcomes confirm that both real and nominal per capita incomes consistently exhibit negative effects on the voluntary surrenders. These effects are statistically significant and attest to the voluntary surrenders' immunization of money illusion with rising nominal incomes. That is, a policy holder's voluntary surrender would entail he/she possesses higher financial literacy. Under alternative measures of surrender/lapse either by their cash-value or termination-rate in total, lapse activities are found to be significantly and negatively related to the unemployment rate and the percentage total population of aged 65 and over-suggesting that in times of economic uncertainty, a decrease in the policy holders' lapse rate translates into a sustaining demand for life insurance protection.