迴歸預測分析紅土球場比賽勝負擊球型態表現因素影響－以納達爾為例

Abstract

目的：分析在紅土球場網球比賽勝負擊球型態指標技術表現影響。方法：依據以職業生涯獲得13次法網冠軍納達爾為研究對象，其於2018至2020年法網官網上公佈的21場共42盤之比賽數據情形，所有比賽勝負統計之11項擊球型態指標，採用描述性統計進行相關係數分析，並以逐步迴歸分析預測勝負之影響。結果：各項擊球型態技術表現對於比賽勝負，在第一發球得分率及第二發球得分率、上網得分率、破發球率、接發球得分率、致勝分率、總得分等達顯著高度負相關，與非受迫性失誤率為高度正相關；在接發球得分、非受迫性失誤率和致勝分3項指標技術表現，係數估計結果對勝負能有效預測係數達顯著水準。結論：紅土球場比賽勝負擊球型態技術表現因素影響，能維持發球的穩定進球率，最重要能有效掌握接發球時的破發機會，減少非受迫性失誤的失分並提高比賽時致勝分，可為比賽勝利預測方程式。

Purpose: This study was analyzing the effect for tennis shot types pattern on matches win and loss in clay courts. Methods: Based on the 2018-2020 Roland-Garros tournament champion Rafael Nadal there in RG official website published a total of 21 games (42 sets) of match data, all match statistics of 11 shot types pattern indicators, the use of descriptive statistics for correlation coefficient analysis, and stepwise regression analysis to predict the impact of victory. Results: This study was the player technical performance for the matches were have 9 shot types pattern winner better than loser. These included has WFS、WSS、BPW、RPW、WP、TPW 6 shot types pattern had significantly highly negative correlation and the UE is highly positively correlated. There are has 3 shot types pattern coefficient estimation results can effectively predict the coefficient of win or loss reached a significant level, the winning technical performance order for the RPW、UE、WP indicators. Conclusion: The influence to of tennis player shot types pattern performance factors in the clay courts. There can maintain the steady scoring offensive of the service and the most important thing is to effectively grasp the scoring opportunity when receiving the ball and reduce the loss of unforced errors to improve the winning score when the matches which can predict the equation for the victory of the game.