中小尺寸面板之產值預測

Abstract

隨著「LCD panel：Anytime、Anywhere」產業願景的提出，TFT LCD 顯示器（Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display）產值的強勁成長是帶動FPD（Flat Panel Display）產業快速發展的主要動力。中小尺寸面板產業的市場需求在多媒體商品需求刺激下，同步呈現大幅度的成長。但因中小尺寸面板規格繁多，客製化程度高與多種不同顯示器技術的競合關係複雜，使中小尺寸面板企業主對於策略的評估和方向產生很多難以估計的變因，建立一中小尺寸面板產值和市場需求預測模式，對市場行銷策略的決定具有高度重要性。 過去Display Search、MIC、Tsr..等市場調查單位皆以使用專家意見法或問卷訪查等方法進行中小尺寸面板產值預測，本研究使用成長曲線法中的珀爾曲線（Pearl curve model）作為預測分析模型，分別由TFT LCD供給面與應用產品需求面觀察市場競合的關係，並針對各家主要中小面板企業在2007 ~ 2011年的產量變化趨勢進行分析。 以殘差值結果分析證實，珀爾曲線法（Pearl curve model）、甘培茲曲線法（Gompertz curve model）及多階成長曲線法（multi-regression）此三種模型具有較高的預測可信度；趨勢外差法、灰預測及線性迴歸模型等預測模式的可信度較低。本研究使用珀爾曲線模式進行中小尺寸面板產值預測可反應實際中小尺寸面板產業現況，可提供企業主投資評估參考依據。 結果發現：（1）中小尺寸面板波動性漸趨於季節性調節，2008年後價格競爭將不再如2004~2006年激烈，產業價值鏈的重新組合創造更多樣化的合作模式；（2）上、下游供應鏈的整合將會決定企業競爭力的核心；（3）未來的五年內手機應用市場仍然會是占有中小面板最大量；（4）2009手機應用產品將達到中小尺寸面板78%的產值，手機面板尺寸需求將會集中在2.8吋和1.8吋。

The inevitable trend of the new IT-industry requires services at anytime and anywhere, thus, Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) gain its momentum and receives immense interests and investments to advance its product volume. The Flat Panel Display (FPD) Industry is therefore experiencing explosive growth rate in these years.

Recently, the incredulous growth and demand of portable multimedia devices has stimulated the production and investment of Small-to-Medium size LCD industry. However, since LCD panels need to cut to various sizes and each product process requires a unique customization and management process, optimal production management and accurate cost-analysis become impossible. Hence, an analytical model, which can provide reliable predictions of the supply and demand curve and figures, will assist decision makers of LCD industry to adjust their strategy and direction when necessary.

Traditional analytical models used in leading Market Intelligent Centre are either Expert Opinion. e.g. Display Search, MIC and TSR…etc. Firstly, this dissertation predicts the demand and supply chain of TFT-LCD by using Pearl curve model in the Growth curve; Secondly, analyzing and visualize the strategic relationship and competitiveness of TFT-LCD leaders and observing the development of the demand and supply in the multimedia consumable market; Finally, the emphasis of this dissertation is to predict the production volume and its forecast on major TFT-LCD manufactures between 2007~2011 based on our findings and models shown above.

The residue test had shown and confirmed that Pearl curve model, Gompertz curve model and multi-regression methods reveals more accurate prediction than these other models; Trend, Linest, Grey prediction, ARIMA, Multi-regression etc. This study demonstrated and confirmed that Pearl curve model depicted more accurate prediction results and reflect more realistic demand and supply curve of the Small-to-Medium Size TFT-LCD industry than others and will assist decision makers of LCD industry to adjust their strategy and direction.

Our study had shown the demand of the Small-to-Medium size TFT-LCD tends to adjust and vary through different season, and the price-war in 2008 is not as severe as the era between 2004~2006. Therefore, it is time to restructure and forming a new strategic relationship of value chain in the market place and benefit from seamless partnership and coherent logistic channel model. From this study, we found that the core competitiveness of a leading company in the future depends on its leveraging and integration ability between supply and demand value chains; Cellphone manufactures and its appliances will still capture largest portion of the demand of the Small-to-Medium size TFT-LCD market in the next 5 years; 81% of the Small-to-Medium size TFT-LCD will be utilized by cellphone and its appliances in 2009, and size will mainly be 2.8 and 1.8 inch.