油價變動對小客車使用者運具使用態度與行為改變傾向之影響研究

Abstract

近年來由於原油市場供不應求，造成原油價格不斷上漲，且油料仍為目前小客車能源之主要來源，使得油價波動不斷地侵蝕小客車使用者之可支配所得；過去國人普遍視小客車之使用為理所當然，幾乎不曾因油料成本而主動考慮使用其它運具以減少油料之耗用，直至近期國內油價隨國際市場反應，迫使小客車使用者認真考慮小客車使用之必要性。本研究嘗試透過問卷設計與調查，探究小客車使用者在面對油價飆漲時，是否會傾向減少使用小客車，與傾向於何種運輸需求使用何種運具替代之。研究針對大台北地區286位小客車使用者進行問卷調查，利用Rasch Model將原始之順位尺度資料轉換成可供深入進行統計推論分析之等距尺度資料，以準確量測小客車使用者之小客車依賴度與因應油價之運輸行為改變傾向等潛在特質，並與外顯變量進行統計分析。研究結果顯示本研究設計之小客車依賴度與因應油價之運輸行為改變傾向量表，確實能測量得知受測者之潛在特質，且有助於推斷小客車使用者實際減少使用小客車之行為改變；又從小客車依賴度分析得知小客車使用者普遍依賴使用小客車，其中以經常使用者最為顯著，惟有捷運搭乘方便對其依賴的情形有抑制的效果；然而，小客車使用者面對油價上漲亦普遍傾向改變慣用小客車的行為，惟其普遍認為大眾運輸方便性仍有改善的空間；最後，本研究期許透過建立「因應油價之運輸行為改變傾向」量表與「運輸行為改變決策」架構，提出探索個體面對油價上漲之運輸行為反應的研究方法，供未來相關個體研究之參考。

The increase of oil price has made a significant impact on the automobile usage all over the world. This study is designed to explore how much the automobile users have changed their travel behavior and what they do in response to the soaring fuel prices. Based on the developed conceptual framework, a questionnaire, which contains several items to represent the possible actions in response to the increase of fuel price, is designed to collect the required information about the change of travel behavior for automobile users when facing the increased fuel price. Rasch model, which can convert the original ordinal raw scores onto the values on an interval scale, is then used to formulate the amount of travel behavior change for the respondent automobile users and explore what actions they are likely to take in response. The study results proof the questionnaires, we design for value the car dependence and the intention of travel behavior change, can estimate correctly the latent trait for automobile users, and support the actual behavior change. We realize that automobile users generally depend on automobiles, but not really for people who lives around the MRT station. Moreover, they would like to decrease driving when facing the increased fuel price; nevertheless, they think public transit could be better. Furthermore, the study tries to provide a conceptual framework, which explores the possible actions in response to the increase of fuel price, for the relating research in the future and make the suggestions on improving the supply of transportation services and issuing effective transportation management policy to reduce automobile usage and promote the policy of sustainable transportation.