建構汽機車動態持有與使用之混合需求模式

Abstract

由於台灣地區經濟發展，使得我國汽機車持有與使用均呈現相當快速之成長，此現象造成嚴重的能源消耗、空氣污染與交通壅塞等問題，尤其是以地狹人稠的都市地區為最。然而為了達成社會永續的目標，必須更迫切地推動有效的管理策略來降低汽機車的持有與使用，而為了預測在不同管理策略下汽機車持有與使用的降低程度，必須建立一套汽機車持有與使用的選擇行為模式。

基於上述觀點，本研究利用(間斷性/連續性)羅吉特模式與迴歸分析建構全國型與區域型汽機車持有與使用模式，並藉以分析各項管理策略，並使用馬可夫鏈模式來預測汽機車數量長期成長趨勢；在實證分析方面，以汽機車車籍資料為基礎，以分層隨機抽樣方法，共計發放90,000份問卷，回收有效問卷5,986份，並為了解各地區環境對於汽機車選擇行為的差異，再將台灣地區23縣市分為主要都會、次要都會及一般城市等三區，並分別建立各區域汽機車持有與使用模式。

而在全國汽機車持有模式中，各項家戶社經特性、居住區位特性與車輛使用特性等三類變數均為影響汽機車持有之重要因素；而由區域型汽車持有模式得知，油費僅在主要都會呈現顯著情形，在其餘二區未有顯著情形，推測此因主要都會區域人口密集，交通較為壅塞且停車不易等因素，且一般來說主要都會區域大眾運輸來得較為便利；車輛價格雖在三區域達顯著水準，但影響程度並不一致，但整體來說以一般城市影響較小，而由區域型機車持有模式得知，車輛價格僅在主要都會與次要都會達顯著水準，在一般城市不為顯著，此情形可能在一般城市中大眾運輸較為不便，且市區較不為擁擠，並較仰賴私人運具有關；而在全國與各區域之汽機車使用模式中，燃油成本均呈現顯著情形，因此可得知燃油成本為影響汽機車使用的重要因素。

為驗證模式的應用性，本研究針對油價調升、車價調升，以及燃料費改隨油徵收等三個策略進行分析。結果顯示，當油價分別上升50%與100%時，全國汽車總行駛里程將分別下降23.44%與41.39%，機車總行駛里程將分別下降6.10%與11.80%.當車價分別上升50%與100%時，全國汽車總行駛里程將分別下降3.94 %與7.21%，全國機車總行駛里程將分別下降1.35%與2.35%；而汽車燃料費改隨油徵收，全國汽車總行駛里程將下降5.22%。

Associated with the rapid growth of economic development in Taiwan, the ever-increasing number of private cars and motorcycles has inevitably brought severe problems of energy consumption, air pollution and traffic congestion. The problems become even more serious in urban areas. Thus, it is urgent and imperative to propose and implement management strategies which can effectively curtail the ownership and usage of cars and motorcycles for the goal of sustainability. In order to forecast the reduction in ownership and usage of vehicles under various strategies, to develop the choice behavior models of car and motorcycle ownership and usage is extremely important.

Based on this, this study employs discrete/continuous Logit and regression models to model the car and motorcycle ownership and usage behaviors at national and regional levels, respectively. Then the proposed models are used to propose and analyze management strategies. According to the transitional probability determined by the proposed models, a Markov chain model is used to forecast the dynamic long-term growth rates of cars and motorcycles. To do this, this study first conducts a nationwide questionnaire survey by disseminating a total of 90,000 questionnaires to the owners of registered cars and motorcycles based on a stratified random sampling technique. A total of 5,986 valid questionnaires are returned. In addition, to further scrutinize the differences of choice behaviors in various living environments, 23 counties/cities of Taiwan are first classified into three regions: major metropolitan, minor metropolitan and ordinary city, then the regional car and motorcycle Logit models are developed accordingly.

The calibrated results of the national ownership models show that social economics, living region and vehicle usage characteristics are major contributing factors to vehicle ownership. As to the regional models, fuel cost is significant in major metropolitan, but it is insignificant in other two regions, implying the gas price elasticity of dense-populated cities would be higher because of their convenient public transportation and congested traffic conditions. Although vehicle price is found to be significant in three regions, it has significantly different coefficients, which tend to be higher in a larger city. The reasons may be similar to that of fuel cost. As to the calibrated results of the national or regional usage regression models, the fuel cost is the most significant variable, indicating its major influence to the usage of vehicles.

To investigate the applicability of the proposed models, three strategies, including the increase of gas price, the increase of vehicle price, and the fuel fee according to miles, are applied and examined. The results show that as the increase of gas price as 50% and 100%, the annual total traveling mileage of car will decrease by 23.44% and 41.39%, respectively; while that of motorcycle will decrease by only 6.10% and 11.80%. In case of the vehicle price increases by 50% and 100%, then the total traveling mileage of car will decrease by only 3.94% and 7.21%, respectively; while that of motorcycle will decrease by 1.35% and 2.35%. The policy of fuel fee according to miles will reduce the total traveling mileage of car by 5.22%.