散裝船舶大型化及市場總船噸之影響因素與未來趨勢分析

Abstract

本研究主要探討影響海岬型及巴拿馬極限型散裝船舶大型化與市場總船噸之影響因素，並預測其未來發展趨勢。研究過程首先根據過去文獻及海運市場供需理論，尋找並歸納可能影響船舶大型化及市場總船噸（載重噸）之影響因素，再利用相關分析與多元迴歸分析分別建立海岬型船舶大型化、巴拿馬極限型船舶大型化、海岬型市場總船噸以及巴拿馬極限型市場總船噸之迴歸模式，探討船舶大型化及市場總船噸之影響因素並以相關分析及單迴歸分析探討船舶大型化及市場總船噸兩者之關聯。最後使用時間序列自我迴歸移動平均模（ARIMA），預測2008 年至2010 年兩種船型之新造船平均噸位及市場總船噸變化趨勢。 研究結果顯示，影響海岬型及巴拿馬極限型船舶大型化之因素主要為運送貨種之貿易量及全球貿易量；影響海岬型及巴拿馬極限型船舶市場總船噸除了貨物貿易量外，全球價格指數、運價指數及貨物價格等經濟因素也會影響到市場總船噸。而且船舶大型化與市場總船噸兩者間有密切的關聯，兩者會互相影響。最後根據時間序列ARIMA 的預測結果，2008 年至2010 年海岬型新造船平均噸位會略微減少；巴拿馬極限型新造船平均噸位將持續成長；而海岬型及巴拿馬極限型船舶市場總船噸皆會繼續增加，並穩定成長。整體而言，未來散裝新造船平均噸位及市場總船噸仍將呈現正向成長。

The main purpose of this research is to explore the factors that affect the size of capsize and Panamax bulk carriers and total tonnage（dead weight tonnage） of world fleet, and to predict the development trend. The study begins with collection of possible influential factors of ships size and total tonnage, based on literature reviews and demand-supply theory of shipping markets, and then use relation analysis and multi-regression analysis to establish regression models of average size of newbuilt Capsize, Panamax, and total tonnage of both types of ships, respectively, to conclude the main influential factors. Single regression analysis is also used to examine the relations between average size of newbuilt ships. Finally, ARIMA is used to predict the trends of average tonnages of newbuilt of the two types of carriers between 2008 and 2010 and those of total tonnage of world fleet. The results indicate that the main factors of the size of capsize and Panamax are the trading amount of shipping cargo types and the world trade amount. Beside these factors, world price index, baltic dry index and cargo prices, etc. also affect total tonnage of world fleet. There is a close relation between average size of newbuilt ships and total tonnage of world fleet, manifesting in their mutual effects. Finally, according to the prediction by ARIMA, newbuilt Capsize carriers between 2008 and 2010 will slightly decrease in average tonnage; newbuilt Panamax carriers will continuously increase in average tonnage; the total tonnage of world fleet of Capsize and Panamax will both increase, and steadily grow. As a whole, the average tonnage of future newbuilt bulk carriers and the total tonnage of world fleet will continue to grow up in the next few years.