波克夏．海瑟威公司從2000 年到2009年投資組合部位的初步分析

Abstract

華倫．巴菲特是全世界最成功的投資人之一，從1965 年入主波克夏．海瑟威公司成為主要股東、董事長與執行長以來交出了傑出的投資成績單，常常被人稱為”傳奇投資者華倫．巴菲特”。本研究分析了波克夏．海瑟威公司的投資組合，以此描繪出巴菲特的價值投資實務，並希望能一窺其投資組合管理策略。總結來說，本研究發現了波克夏．海瑟威公司的普通股投資管理的許多特性，包括部位增減與大盤波動的關係、部位周轉程度、部位的產業別分佈與變化趨勢、個別持股時間長短的分佈，本研究也針對持股時間長短差異較大的公司群組進一步研究其特性，發現了波克夏持股條件的要項是資本報酬率與獲利能力，對於某些獲利能力特別高與波動率低的公司確實有長期持有的偏好，而對於其他的公司卻未必，至於買賣時機最有相關性的指標應該是P/B在歷史區間的高低位置，這點也符合班傑明．葛拉漢重視資產與清算價值的價值投資學派的主張。波克夏．海瑟威公司同時兼用了核心持股與分散投資組合兩種方法，這也詮釋了巴菲特”我是15%費雪和85%班傑明．葛拉漢”的投資風格。

The legendary investor Warren Buffett has been delivering outstanding performances in managing Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as an investment holding company since 1965. By analyzing Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s holding portfolio, this research intends to portrait Warren Buffett’s value investing practices and his strategic thinking in portfolio management. This research analyzed the holding portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. disclosed in SEC 13F-HR from 2000 to 2009. This research explored the correlation of the fluctuations between Berkshire holding position and S&P 500 index, and discussed the turn-over rate of this holding position by categorizing the portfolio by sectors and holding periods. This research also compared key company financial indices between Berkshire’s long-time holdings and short-time holdings. The result showed that capital return rates (R.O.I., R.O.E.) and profitability (GPM, NPM) were the most important criteria for Berkshire to invest in. This research found Berkshire did favor companies with highest profitability and low beta for holding long-term. The values of P/B ratio over historical P/B band best explained the timing of buy and sell. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has adopted both core holding and diversified portfolio in managing the fund. This finding seems supporting what Warren Buffett said that he is 15 percent Fisher and 85 percent Benjamin Graham.