台灣行動寬頻之擴散與預測及其對固網影響之研究

Abstract

過去有許多的預測模型被開發並成功的預測長生命週期產品的成長趨勢，也有一些預測模型被發展是為了預測剛被開發出來的新產品或短生命週期產品的成長趨勢，這些預測模型的共同假設是所有產品的成長曲線是遵循 S-曲線。對於剛被開發出來的新產品，我們很難判定是否會依循 S-曲線發展。在這篇論文裡我們使用『灰理論』預測台灣移動寬頻及固網的擴散，在非常有限的資料而無法辨識成長曲線下，『灰理論』可以被用來預測新產品的未來成長趨勢。此外，『滲透率』是另一項用來預測移動寬頻及固網擴散的重要指標，在這篇論文裡，我們將使用『滲透率』來預測和表示移動寬頻及固網的擴散。

There are many forecasting models which were developed and successfully predict the product diffusion of long lifecycle. There are a few forecasting models which were developed for predicting new products with short product lifecycle. Assumption of these models is the growth of products follows S-shape curve. As for the products which were just introduced to the market, it is very difficult to identify if they follow S-shape curve. We use Grey theory to predict the diffusion of mobile broadband and fixed Internet in Taiwan in this study. Grey theory can be used to predict the growth trend of new products which have very limited primitive data to identify the growth curves. On the other hand, penetration is an important indicator to predict the diffusion of mobile broadband and fixed Internet. We will use penetration to predict and indicate the diffusion in this study.