土地競標重要風險因素之探討

Abstract

建設公司決定土地競標價格，主要係根據投資報酬率之估算結果決定，惟影響投資報酬率因素眾多，且相關因素多受企業外在因子影響(例如景氣情況、物價波動等)，因此土地競標係為極具風險之決策。但實務作業上，甚少建設公司會將風險因素納入考量。本研究以某建設公司為例，分析實務上土地競標之決策程序、方式及考量因素，再配合歷史統計資料及專家訪談，決定各項因素之風險水準(最大、平均、最小)，透過現值分析、敏感度分析與決策樹等風險分析工具，建立之土地競標價格計算模式，最後再與真實之土地得標價格比較，驗證本研究模式之效度。研究結果顯示，案例公司雖具競標價格之標準計算公式，惟實際上仍由經營者主觀態度決定。此外，本研究建立之土地競標價格計算模式，有助於釐清土地開發之關鍵風險因素，且預估之標價亦具投標競爭力。

Construction companies determine land bidding prices mainly on the basis of the results of ROI (returns on investment) estimates. However, ROI is subject to many factors and relevant factors are affected by external factors of the enterprise (e.g., economic situation, price fluctuations, etc.). Therefore, land bidding is a decision making of greater risk. However, in practice, few construction companies take into consideration of the risk factors. With a construction company as an example, this study analyzed the practical land bidding decision-making procedures, methods and consideration factors. With historical statistical data and expert interview data, this study determined the risk levels of various factors (e.g., maximum, average, and minimum). Through risk analysis tools, including the present value analysis, sensitivity analysis, and decision-making tree, this study established the land bidding price computation model, and finally compared the prices with the actual land transaction prices to validate the effectiveness of the model. According to the research results, although the case company has the bidding price standard calculation equation, the bidding prices are determined subjectively by the managers. In addition, the land bidding price calculation model established in this study can help clarify the key risk factors of land development and the estimated bidding prices are competitive in bidding.