矽晶型太陽能光電系統發電量預測模式建構

Abstract

日本宮城地震海嘯所引起之核能災變，再度喚起全世界對再生能源的重視，由於再生能源的具有無污染、無公害等特性，加上太陽能屬於取之不盡的能源，且台灣屬副熱帶及熱帶型氣候，平均日照時間長，非常適合發展太陽能光電(Photovoltaics，簡稱PV)產業。 本研究目的為建立太陽能光電系統發電量預測模式，針對台灣地區目前已架設之矽晶型太陽能光電系統進行分析，利用統計迴歸分析法建構發電量預測模式，結果顯示影響矽晶型太陽能光電系統發電量之關鍵因子分別為module單片面積、inverter轉換效率及太陽日射量，其中最關鍵因子為太陽日射量。 經濟部於98年7月10日公告「再生能源發展條例」正式實施，99年4月30日完成發布再生能源電能躉售費率，一般大眾建置之太陽能光電系統所發的電可以開始躉售給台電，預期將加速台灣地區太陽能光電系統產業之發展及提高民眾安裝意願。運用本研究所建立之發電量預測模式，可以準確的預測太陽能光電系統發電量，希望能提供有意願安裝太陽能發電系統之大眾參考。

Nuclear crisis caused by massive earthquakes and tsunami in Japan 2011 awakens the world to reconsider the value of the renewable energy sources. Solar energy, a naturally inexhaustible and sustainable energy source, should be promoted, developed, utilized. In Taiwan, the summer period is more than half year, and the level of solar radiation is suitable for the Photovoltaic system generation.

This research focused on the performance of Crystal Photovoltaic System under the real conditions in Taiwan and aimed to construct a power generation prediction model for the Crystal Photovoltaic System by using Regression Analysis. Results from this model showed the solar radiation is the most important influence factor.

Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that “The Renewable Energy Sources Development Law” on July 10 in 2009 and encourage the public and private corporation to set up the solar energy system, and then saving electricity can be sold back. Furthermore, the power generation prediction model for the Crystal Photovoltaic can be used for assisting engineers and users to understand PV systems in practice.