中國大陸筆記型電腦市場銷售影響因素及預測之研究

Abstract

2009年NB占整體PC市場已達56.7%，成為PC的主流，而中國電腦產量占全球產量超過40%，平均全球每四個網民就有一個在大陸，可見筆記型電腦在中國大有機會，筆記型電腦大廠-宏□，於2010年第一季宣布其營運目標，除了增加獲利率，另一目標即為擴大中國市占率，中國筆記型電腦市場已成為眾所矚目的焦點。本研究透過迴歸分析，探討中國筆記型電腦銷售影響因素，預測中國各省市筆記型電腦銷售量，找出銷售誤差較大之省市，並探究其原因，提供企業進入中國市場時，選擇重點經營地區之參考，本研究實證結果如下： 1. 中國筆記型電腦銷售影響因素為：國內生產總值比例、第三產業比例、網路普及率、大專以上人口比例。 2. 中國大陸擁有筆記型電腦與銷售預測誤差較大之省份與其造成誤差原因包括：政府重點開發省市－天津市、河北省；中西部經濟之首－江西省、四川省；落後高潛力區－西藏自治區、海南省。

In 2009, the share of notebooks accounted for 56.7% of PC sales. Notebooks become the mainstream in PC market. The shipment of Notebooks in China has exceeded 40% of total shipment. One of every four internet users is Chinese. It shows that notebooks have plenty of opportunities in China. In the first quarter of 2010, Acer announced that in addition to increasing profitability, Acer is to expand its China market share. The Notebook market in China has become the focus of the world. Through regression analyzes, this study is to explore the determinants of the Notebook sales in China and to forecast the Notebook sales of Chinese provinces and major cities, the provinces and cities with large forecast error are identified and further examined the reasons of error. The findings include: 1. The determinants of the Notebook sales in China are the proportion of GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry, the internet penetration, the proportion of college population. 2. The provinces and cities with large sales error of Notebook sales are : Tianjin, Herbei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Tibet, Hainan