服裝零售產業銷售額預測之研究 –以中國某連鎖服裝零售商為例

Abstract

中國雖然擁有龐大的服裝市場，卻也吸引了諸多企業在此開設門店，而在如此競爭的環境之下開設新店必定要承受更高的風險。有鑑於此，本研究欲針對服裝零售產業建立銷售額的預測模型，以做為管理者進行展店規劃的輔助工具，讓管理者能夠事先預測新門店開設後之營業額，並依此推算門店所能賺取的利潤以及回收期的長短，再進行是否開店的決策，如此便能降低開設新店的風險，同時也能確保投注的龐大資金能有實質的回收。為了建立銷售額的預測模型，本研究參考相關領域的文獻資料，歸納出四個影響銷售額的因素，並透過個案公司所提供的歷史資料進行分析，欲以實證的方式驗證此四個因素對於銷售額的影響、建立此四個因素與銷售額之間的迴歸方程式以供個案公司作為預測之用。最後，雖然本研究所提供的銷售額預測模型是針對個案公司所設計，但由於本研究所選定的四個因素皆是經由相關領域的文獻探討所歸納出來的因素，因此，若其他的服裝零售公司也想建立屬於自身的銷售額預測模型時，也能考慮將這四個因素納入預測模型之中，相信對於提升模型的預測能力能有不錯的效果。

Due to China’s huge apparel retailing market, more and more companies decide to set up their own stores in China. Therefore, the apparel retailers in China have become much more competitive than before, and the risk of opening a new store is also much higher than ever. Thus, this study proposed to find out the important factors related to sales performance based on a company’s history data and provide a sales forecasting model based on those factors. Through the sales forecasting model, it could reduce the risk by assist the managers in making their decisions with the predictor. Based on the experimental results, the factors chosen in this study do have a great impact on sales performance. Although the forecasting model proposed in this study is only suitable for the current company, but for other company, they can consider to include those important factors in its own sales forecasting model to enhance the forecast accuracy.