台灣多媒體服務平台的動態競爭:一個系統動態論的觀點

Abstract

在數位匯流的趨勢下，電信網路與有線電視產業的界線漸漸模糊，進入了跨業競爭的時代，有線電視業者已利用電視纜線提供語音及上網服務，嚴重威脅到中華電信，另一方面電信業者的固網電話受到行動電話及網路電話影響，營收不斷滑落，在電視、電信及網際網路「三網合一」的網路發展趨勢下，中華電信推出MOD新服務，積極尋求產品服務的轉型，進行產品多角化經營，希望客戶能藉由MOD平台，享受互動電視、上網購物、視訊等服務。

本研究分析多媒體服務的二種平台，有線電視與中華電信MOD，採用系統動態論的觀點，建立業者數量、用戶數及節目內容三個子系統回饋迴路。研究結果顯示，業者數量子系統是目標侵蝕系統基模，用戶數子系統是成長上限系統基模，以及節目內容子系統屬於富者愈富系統基模。

有線電視系統產業在地方勢力長期介入，形成區域寡占，消費者毫無選擇，因為缺乏競爭，品質、價格都無法改善。而大碗公的收視文化，也造成有線電視業者的營收無法突破，所以業者提供寬頻上網、網路電話及數位電視等服務。

在數位家庭服務匯流趨勢下，中華電信必須以市話、寬頻上網及行動電話用戶為客戶基礎，延升到MOD平台，加強節目內容豐富性，把水平服務客戶變成垂直服務客戶。

Under the trend of digital convergence, the line between telecommunication network and cable TV industry has become dizzy. A telecom may simultaneously engage in more than one business competition. The cable TV systems operators also provide the local phone and broadband service via the cable wire, seriously threatening revenues of Chunghwa Telecom. On the other hand, the earnings of fixed-line communications drop due to the entry of integrated network operators as well as mobile and Internet telephones. Coping with the ‘three-in-one’ framework of the television, telecommunication, and Internet, the Chunghwa Telecom promotes the MOD (multimedia on demand) service, in order to pursue product variety and market diversification. The MOD platform covers interactive television, shopping, and video services. This research analyzes the dynamic competition between two multimedia service platforms, the cable TV and MOD of the Chunghwa Telecom, using the system dynamics viewpoint. There are three sub-system feedback loops, including the number of operator numbers, subscribers, and the program contents. The empirical results show that the system patterns of operator number is of the ‘eroding goals’ archetype; that of subscriber number is of ‘limits to growth’ archetype; and that of the program content is of ‘success to the successful’ archetype. CATV (community antenna television) systems are under the market structure of local monopolies, providing consumers not much choice. Due to the lack of competition, the quality and the price of CATV cannot be improved. Due to the lump-sum payment pattern, cable TV earnings are unable to increase. Therefore the CATV system operators provide services such as broadband service, Internet telephone, and digital television. Under the trend of digital convergence, the Chunghwa Telecom needs to take the local phone, broadband service, and mobile phone users as the customer basis, enrich program contents, and covert horizontal service to vertical service.