利用定價與營收最佳化技術之實施以評估總合支持措施之最適性 – 以中國的小麥為例

Abstract

商業概念通常被直覺地排除在政府的決策過程。的確，二者的決策分析受到一些刻板模式、先入為主之成見、以至範例所制約。本論文提出一項概念，每個國家必須像一個大企業般地運作：促成高品質、低成本的生產(也就是極大化最終消費者的財務價值)，並專注於達成上述目的的相關政策與法規。供需的力量以及隨後價格的形成，即Adam Smith所謂的無形之手，全賴我們對市場經濟的了解。這些機制根植於「理性」(利潤極大化)公司的概念，也定義了市場均衡的方式。

另一方面，農業方面的支持也被視為在農糧研究上最為廣泛討論的課題之一。尤其，在某些個案所造成的供給過剩、傾銷，更被視為相當負面的影響。本論文提出一個概念性的模式，其牽涉政治的、經濟的與經濟計量的指標。在此架構下，利用一基本的定價與營收最佳化(Pricing and Revenue Optimization, PRO)技術，可對補金額建立一適當的評估，並藉以促使一個貿易模式(在本論問係以中國的小麥為例)可行且合理地運作，以達到確保價格穩定、避免市場扭曲的目標。小麥的國內價格在各國，尤其是在中國，一向低於國際的指標價格，顯示國內政策與貿易政策已造成農民無法獲得其作物在全球市場應得的報酬。

補貼後的食物價格被預期可能將增加食物需求量，進一步提高食物價格，以至造成潛在性的通貨膨漲循環。然而，供給與需求的變動性最終會達到一個新的平衡，其所對應的最佳消費者價格將確保食物供給的安全與生產者的獲益。多邊的農業補貼機制將改善國外市場的可及性並提高全球農產品價格。以本研究的案例而言，最終不僅中國農民收益將提高，在各國同意適用相同政策於農民時，將使農業的生產與需求在無形之手的影響下，使供給與需求達到平衡。

There is an intuitive tendency to isolate business concepts from Governments policy making. Indeed, the way both parts analyze their strategies is conditioned by stereotypes, prejudges or merely by paradigms. From this thesis proposal, every country has to work as a big corporation, promoting the high quality and low cost of its production (maximizing monetary values for the final consumers) and has to focus all its policies, laws, and regulations in order to achieve that goal. “The forces of supply and demand and the resulting process of price formation –the <invisible hand> of Adam Smith – lie at the heart of our current understanding of market economics.” They are embodied in the concept of the “rational” (profit-maximizing) firm, and define the mechanism by which market equilibrium are reached.

On the other hand, “agricultural support is considered one of the most discussed subjects for researches in agriculture and food. In particular, its impacts were classified negatively in some cases (among countries) where agricultural support results in overproduction and causes dumping in other countries markets.”

The thesis proposal is a conceptual model, which involve political, economical and econometric measures. In this sense applying a basic Pricing and Revenue Optimization technique, it’s possible to formulate a right assessment on the subsidy quantity that make a trade model (in this case for wheat in China) to work feasibly and logically in order to assure price stabilization and avoid distortions in the market. For wheat, and particularly in China, domestic prices were lower than the international indicator price, suggesting that domestic and trade policies prevented farmers from receiving as good a return on their wheat crop as was possible on world markets.

The subsidized food prices could be expected to increase the demanded quantity of food, thus increasing prices further, and potentially contributing to an inflationary spiral. Nevertheless, production and demand volatility eventually will find a “new equilibrium” and the resulting optimal price for customer can assure food security and profitability for producers. Multilateral subsidization in agriculture would improve access to overseas markets and stabilize world market prices for agricultural commodities.