ECFA事件之宣布效果

Abstract

自由貿易協定在世界各地展開，而其中ECFA 尌是屬於自由貿易協定的一種，但由於兩岸的特殊關係，本研究藉由事件研究法並以實際協商四次開會日期其中包含簽署日為事件日，並以水泥、化學、塑膠、機械、紡織、石油、鋼鐵、汽車等共17 種產業，全部共有86 家ECFA 受惠股為樣本，討論台灣市場和投資人如何看待兩岸的自由貿易協定。其實證結果發現，四次ECFA 協商日期，第一次ECFA 協商日期產生負向異常報酬，本研究認為可能是因為台灣的投資者因為兩岸政治因素的關係，對於ECFA 的簽訂保留遲疑和觀望的態度，而且加上台灣股市受到國際股市的影響使得報酬呈現負向顯著。而其他三次皆產生正向顯著異常報酬，代表隨著協商的次數增加，市場及投資者會體認到兩岸經貿架構協議是對台灣未來經濟發展非常重要的。

Free trade agreements have developed around the world. ECFA is one of free trade agreements . Because of the special relations between Taiwan and China, this study use event study and four event days which is the actual date of the ECFA meeting includes the signing date . In this study, using total 17 industries and 86 companies which include chemical, plastics, machinery, textiles, petroleum, steel, automobile and other industries as samples. Those 17 companies are benefit in ECFA. This study is discussing how does Taiwan stock market and investors react in this free trade agreement. The results shows that four in consultation ECFA date, the first consultation day in ECFA has negative abnormal returns, this study suggests that the result may be that Taiwan stock market and investors are worrying about the political relations between Taiwan and China which may has risks and the Taiwan stock market has impact made by the international stock market . The other three all have significant positive abnormal returns . It means that Taiwan stock market and investors consider ECFA as a great economic issue for developing the economic in the future for Taiwan.