福岡機場國際航班轉移至北九州機場之成本效益分析

Abstract

福岡機場位於日本九州半島福岡縣福岡市區，優越的地理位置及便利的轉乘交通，使其年旅客量居九州半島各機場之冠。然而，福岡機場僅有一條2,800公尺的跑道，目前的營運情形已極為接近跑道的設計容量限制。位處住宅區圍繞的市區，使得福岡機場擴建第二跑道的方案較為困難，而於鄰近地區擇地興建新福岡機場的方案，也受限於建造成本的高昂及環境影響的考量而較不可行。因此，本研究提出將福岡機場中對於時間較不敏感的國際航班旅客轉移至北九州機場之替選方案，並以成本效益分析方法來評估此替選方案的可行性。在本研究的成本效益分析中，以維持原狀方案作為比較方案，在運量持續成長的假設下，未來福岡機場由於容量不足將產生旅客轉換成本及機場擁擠成本，此為納入成本效益分析的其中二個項目。國際航班轉移前後前往機場的旅行成本變化導致的使用者效益改變，為另一分析項目。而為服務轉移的國際航班旅客，北九州機場擴建現有航廈與興建新航廈的成本也是考量的項目之一。敏感度分析的結果顯示，平均轉換懲罰時間與平均擁擠延遲時間愈低時，評估結果愈差。旅客成長率愈低，或是折現率愈高時，此替選方案愈有可能不可行。國內航班載客率與平均座位數愈高時，替選方案愈有可能不被接受；國際航班的載客率與平均座位數則對評估結果是否接受替選方案較無影響。北九州機場增修航廈的成本由於占總成本比例較小，因此對決策結果幾乎沒有影響。

As the fourth busiest airport in Japan, Fukuoka Airport (FUK), with one single runway of 2,800 meters, is currently operating near its full capacity. However, it is difficult to expand the capacity due to its city-centered location surrounded by the residential area. In addition, it is less likely to build a new airport near Fukuoka, given the concerns over the high construction cost and the serious environmental impacts. Therefore, this study proposes an alternative by re-locating the less time-sensitive international flights from Fukuoka Airport to Kitakyushu Airport (KKJ), which has a runway of 2,500 meters and sufficient space for expansion. This study performs a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed alternative. User benefit is calculated in terms of the social-welfare changes due to changes in generalized travel costs. The benefits are estimated by considering the do-nothing alternative as the basis. In particular, given the assumption for the demand growth, the benefits are related to the reduction of the demand diversion and airport congestion caused by the insufficient capacity in the do-nothing alternative. As for the costs, the major components are the construction of the new terminal and the extension of the existing terminal to accommodate the re-located international flights at KKJ. By the sensitivity analysis on key factors such as demand growth and discount rates, this study finds the conditions in which the proposed alternative is acceptable.