标题: 永续运输政策认知之实证研究
Empirical Study on Beliefs of Sustainable Transportation Policies
作者: 陈宾权
Chen, Pin-Chuan
张新立
Chang, Hsin-Li
运输与物流管理学系
关键字: 政策信仰;资深公务员;一般民众;永续运输;Rasch模式;独立样本t 检定;policy beliefs;the senior officials;the public;sustainable transportation;Rasch model;independent samples t-tests
公开日期: 2010
摘要: 本研究主要目的是针对永续运输政策相关利害关系人(包括资深公务员及一般民众)的潜在心理构面进行探索,并发展一个概念性架构来衡量其对政策的认知。我们综合个人对政策信仰的主观限制与客观考量,概念化成为一种潜在心理构面,进一步探究政策信仰有助于政策制定之始洞悉利害关系人的偏好,并可事先预测政策执行的效果。本研究首先讨论政策信仰的定义及可能影响政策信仰的因素,接着导入一个有效的方法论来衡量资深公务员及一般民众政策信仰;其次,我们将透过实证研究来取得资深公务员及一般民众对永续运输的政策信仰,并比较两者之间的差异。
本研究使用Rasch模式针对资深公务员及一般民众对永续运输的政策信仰以数量化的方式进行评估,研究结果发现,不管是资深公务员或一般民众,都偏好支持不会限制人民偏好或自由的政策,也都认为提供更有效、更友善的公共运输服务会比透过提高使用成本来限制私人运具使用更能达成永续运输的目的。分析资深公务员的社经特性则发现,在同一工作职务愈久、累积工作经验愈多、拥有权力愈大,则愈相信自己本身有能力制定政策、愈能够判断政策可行性,在执行政策时也愈有信心。
进一步观察一般民众使用通勤工具与永续运输政策信仰的关系,发现使用公共运输工具通勤者与一般大众对永续运输政策的偏好是相同的,两者都认为“开发新能源技术”是对永续运输发展最有帮助的政策;相对地,对使用私人运具通勤以及回答未来有意愿减少私人运具使用者,则比一般大众更相信“兴建轨道运输系统”更能够达成永续运输环境的政策目标。
透过DIF分析,本研究同时发现使用公共运输及没有小汽车的人则分别比使用私人运具通勤与拥有小汽车者更认同“都会区实施拥挤收费”以及“提高油价或停车费”等经济管制措施。但相对地,使用私人运具通勤与拥有小汽车者会分别比使用公共运输及没有小汽车的人更认同“提供即时资讯”、“补贴改装LPG车”,以及“实施ETC”等项目是有助于永续运输。而是否拥有小客车的不同族群透过DIF分析也得到前述相同的结果。
此外,本研究透过独立样本t检定来检视资深公务员与一般民众对政策认知的差异,结果发现两者对“兴建轨道运输系统”的支持度一致,但对其他政策项目则显示资深公务员比一般民众对政策是否有助于永续运输发展的评估要更为保守,这显示一般民众比较乐观看待永续运输政策的推动,也比参与政策制定的资深公务员更支持永续运输相关政策。
The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual framework to measure stakeholders’ policy beliefs on sustainable transportation implementation and then conduct experimental trials aimed at exploring stakeholders’ policy beliefs. We conceptualized policy belief as the combined effect of people’s objective constraints and subjective considerations, and viewed it as a latent trait. Exploring policy beliefs can provide insights regarding the mindset of those initiating policies and, thus, help predict outcomes prior to implementation. In this study, we first discuss the development of policy beliefs and the factors affecting their development. An effective approach for measuring senior officials’ and the general public’s policy beliefs is then suggested. Next, we describe an empirical study of the policy beliefs of senior officials and the general public, as well as a comparison of two groups of stakeholders.
This study quantitatively evaluated beliefs about sustainable transportation policies from senior officials and the general public by using the Rasch model since it has been intensively used in psychometric studies to estimate values on an interval scale based on ordinal responses. The results have shown that not only senior officials but also the general public believe that providing a more efficient and friendly public transportation service to attract people’s patronage would be more practicable than limiting private car use by increasing usage costs. For the senior officials, the longer an official is in a position the more experience and power he or she will attain; thus, seniority, experience, and power tend to drive policy success. As the officials become more senior they gain more administrative experience and the better they feel they can judge policy feasibility; they are more confident when implementing policy.
Furthermore, by extending the results based on respondents’ commuting modes we found the policy preference rankings from the public transport commuters are the same as from the general public. “Developing new energy sources” was found to be the strategy in which both the private and the public transport commuters were most confident for implementing sustainable transportation policy. However, for people who commuted by private transport and were willing to act to mitigate private transport use, their policy belief regarding constructing rail transport systems to achieve sustainable transport was stronger than the public as a whole.
The study also revealed significant differences in policy beliefs between private and public transport commuters after DIF analysis. Public transport commuters are more confident than private transport commuters in the policies that raise usage costs, such as “Congestion Road Pricing on CBD,” “Increase gasoline prices to reduce car use,” and “Increase parking fees to reduce car use.” In addition, to achieve the goal of sustainable transportation, people who commute by private transport are more confident than public transport commuters in policies that “Provide instant traffic information to reduce driving time,” “Subsidize public to modify car by using LPG,” and “Implement electronic toll collection (ETC).” The findings and lessons learned from the two subgroups of people who owned and did not own a passenger car are the same as from the two subgroups of commuters using private and public transport.
In addition, independent samples t-tests were used to identify significant differences between senior officials and the public on each item. The result revealed that the public believes more strongly than the senior officials in the effectiveness of building public transport centers as a means for achieving sustainable transportation. Except for constructing rail transport systems, the public is more optimistic that these policies will benefit sustainable transportation than are the senior officials. In other words, it indicates that senior officials are more conservative than the public regarding whether these policies will benefit sustainable transportation.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079832802
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/47847
显示于类别:Thesis


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