二氧化碳排放、能源消耗及經濟成長之關係研究－以印尼和墨西哥為例

Abstract

本文主要欲檢驗印尼和墨西哥於1980－2008年間，在污染物排放量、能源消耗量以及產出之間的動態因果關係。本文將運用共整合檢定、誤差修正模型、因果檢定和其他相關計量方法來找出這些變數之間的關係。 印尼檢定結果顯示，能源消耗量和產出之間存在雙向的強烈以及短期因果關係，同時伴隨著產出到能源消耗量的長期因果關係。另一方面，存在排放量到能源消耗量的強烈以及長期因果關係，同時伴隨著排放量與能源消耗量之間的短期雙向因果關係。 墨西哥檢定結果顯示，能源消耗量和產出、能源消耗量和排放量以及產出和排放量之間皆存在雙向的強烈以及長期因果關係，同時伴隨著能源消耗量和產出之間的短期雙向因果關係，以及能源消耗量到排放量的短期因果關係。 總之，印尼和墨西哥皆應增加在能源供給面的投資以及使用效率，且應推動節約能源政策以減少不必要的浪費，才能在不負面影響經濟成長的情況下減少排放量。

This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output in Indonesia and Mexico during the period 1980-2008. The cointegration test, error-correct model, causality test and other econometric methods are applied to find the relationships among these variables. In Indonesia, the causality results indicate there are energy consumption–output bidirectional strong causality and short-run causality, along with unidirectional long-run causality from output to energy consumption. On the other hand, there are both strong and long-run causalities from emissions to energy consumption, along with energy consumption–emissions bidirectional short-run causality. In Mexico, the causality results indicate there are both bidirectional strong causality and long-run causality on energy consumption–output, energy consumption–emissions and output-emissions, along with bidirectional short-run causality on energy consumption–output and unidirectional short-run causality from energy consumption to emissions. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for Indonesia and Mexico.