地區脆弱度評估系統之建構-以桃園縣為例

Abstract

在全球氣候變遷下，人口快速成長、都市成長模式改變等等因素人類對自然環境不當開發利用，皆加劇災害對人類社會造成的傷害。因此，為降低災害造成之損失，國際愈來愈重視脆弱度相關議題，評估自然環境與社會環境在面臨天然災害時脆弱度之影響。脆弱度廣泛地定義為潛在的可能損失，在研究災害時此為一重要的中心觀念以及發展減災策略的基礎。而地區脆弱度亦由此延伸而來，在一空間中，地區內各發展面向所組成之結構相異，在遭受外在壓力下，例如颱風、水災、政府政策等等人為及非人為因素，某一地區現有條件下所能承受之程度。 本研究釐清地區脆弱度意義與討論範圍後，根據Cutter(1996) 提出地區危害脆弱度模式為討論基礎，構建地區脆弱度之目標體系，共有兩大構面、六個次構面與十四項指標。而每一指標的量測定義以及脆弱度間的正反向關係須清楚定義與討論，利用標準化方式使指標方向一致化，其指標評估值大小須能說明地區相對脆弱程度。接著透過ANP方法賦予各個指標權重，藉由分配權重方式，量測各個指標間相對重要性，進行有效與正確的評估。最後利用簡單加權方法將量性指標評估值與權重整合，以計算整體地區脆弱度。 結果顯示，「防災空間面積比」與「聯外主要道路密度」兩指標在脆弱度評估上為影響地區脆弱度高低最重要的指標。雖「身心障礙人口比例」亦是關鍵影響指標之一，但社會環境條件僅能透過長期的改善手段，來減少其暴露在危險下。另外，研究結果發現復興鄉為桃園縣最脆弱之地區，當災害發生時較容易產生大規模災損之情形。最後，藉由集群分析將有相同關鍵影響指標之個體併為一群，可將桃園縣分為四群探討，以地區性策略方式，將特徵相似的鄉鎮市共同發展為一空間發展帶，以研擬改善策略，減少城鄉間防災資源分佈之不平均。

Because the improper exploitation of natural resources under global climate change that aggravates disasters to human society. Therefore, in order to reduce losses caused by disasters there are more attention to international issues related to vulnerability. To assess the natural and social environment confronts by natural disasters against the impact of vulnerability. Vulnerability, broadly defined as the potential for loss, is an essential concept in hazards research and is a central to the developments of hazard mitigation strategies. The place vulnerability is an extension of vulnerability. In the spatial aspects, the areas for development within the elements by differences in the subject to external stress, such as typhoons, floods, government policies, and so on, how an area can bear under the existing conditions. This research uses the hazards-of-place model of vulnerability is proposed by Cutter (1996) from the literature review to identify the meaning of vulnerability. This paper presents a method for assessing the place vulnerability using both biophysical and social indicators. Two dimensions, six sub-dimensions and fourteen criteria are chosen. Definition of each indicator how to measure and the vulnerability of the negative and the positive association must be defined clearly. We utilize the way of normalization in order to unite the aspect of the indicators. The evaluation of the indicators should be able to explain the relationship of the vulnerability between the areas. Next the weights of the indicators are integrated by ANP. Through measuring the relative importance between the various indicators conducts the effective and accurate assessment. Then we use the simple weighted method to integrate indicators for calculating the place vulnerability of overall regions. The results indicate that the “spatial area ratio of disaster prevention” and the “density ratio of main road extension” are the most significant indicators in the assessment for affect the place vulnerability. Although the “proportion of people with disability” is also a key factor, the social environment conditions are improved only through long-term way to reduce them exposure to risk. Besides, the find that Fusing Township is the most vulnerable area in Taoyuan County. If when the disaster occurs, the more prone to the large-scale losses. Finally, we group the individuals that have the same critical influencing factors by cluster analysis and can be divided into four groups. The townships have similar features to be joint development as a spatial development zone through the regional strategy. Afterward we formulate strategies to reduce an unbalanced distribution of resources of disaster prevention between urban and rural areas.