機場捷運線營運財務計畫檢討分析

Abstract

本論文係探討機場捷運線在規劃階段所設定之背景條件，比較與現階段實際發展背景條件間之差異，對營運財務計畫所造成之影響。透過文獻回顧與臺北捷運過去實務營運經驗，確認影響機場捷運營運收入之因素在於票價與運量，影響支出之因素在於運量與物價指數，而運量又主要受自然人口、三級產業人口發展之影響。經本研究分析，並對照臺北捷運實務營運經驗之後，可以得出機場捷運於規劃階段所訂定之票價條件過於樂觀，導致高估票箱收入。另外，雖自然人口發展已較規劃階段略有成長，且平均物價指數亦有降低，但在三級產業人口成長部分，現況發展情形遠較預測階段為低，因此估計機場捷運實際營運之運量，已較規劃階段預測較為下降。 在調整票價與運量條件後，估算其營運毛利變化情形，可發現在調整票價與運量設定後，將使得機場捷運之營運最快在開始營運後第8年即耗盡營運公司之資本額。為因應此一虧損情形以達機場捷運永續經營目標，本研究擬定「加強接駁轉乘服務」、「降低人事成本」、「適時調整票價」、及「配合航空城開發引進產業人口」等四項因應措施，並逐步探討四項因應措施實施後對機場捷運營運毛利之變化情形。

This study focus on the financial impzct of the different between the planning stage and current condition of airport MRT operations in Taiwan. Accroding to the Taipei MRT, we found the influence factories of operating revenue are fares and traffic, and of expenditure are traffic and concumer prise index. At the same time, the traffic is affected by the population and tertiary industrial sectors development. To compare the practical operational experiences of Taipei MRT, we found the price of the stage of airport MRT was too high, and overestimate the operating revenue. Futhermore, the population grew in the planning stage, the average comsumer price index was lower than the planning stage and tertiary industrial sectrors grew not as expected, than the traffic of airport MRT must be drop. Consider about adjusting the fares and the operating traffic, we estimate the company will go out of business as 8 years later. In respend to achieve sustainable goals of airport MRT, this study proposed "Strengthening connections ride service," "reduced staff costs," "adjust fares", and "with the aviation industry, city development and the introduction of population "the four response measures, and gradually explore the four response measures to implement the Airport MRT operating margin after the change of circumstances.