iPad概念股價格之動態分析

Abstract

蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)於2010年1月27日推出平版電腦iPad；同年4月3日，正式在美國開賣，一上市便轟動熱賣，並且帶動平板電腦的風潮，使2011年變成平板電腦元年。新產品宣告已成為品牌廠商重要的行銷策略之一，過去的研究主要是針對新產品宣告對於宣告廠商和其競爭者的股價影響， 本研究結合新產品宣告及產業供應鏈，以事件研究法分析iPad重要之臺灣供應廠商，實證其產品宣告對異常報酬之影響。除了使用市場模型外，亦使用GARCH模型來進行係數之估計。另外，並以迴歸分析探討其他因素對累積平均異常報酬的影響。實證結果支持新產品iPad宣告在宣告日當天對臺灣供應廠商有正的異常報酬，且對電子零組件廠商之異常報酬的影響較大。公司規模大小會影響累積異常報酬率。

Apple announced the tablet-PC iPad on January 27, 2010, and the same year on April 3, the iPad was launched in the US and sold more than 300,000 units on that day. With 15 million Apple iPad sold in 2010, it is clear that the touch tablet platform has massive potential. Prior literature analysis the effect of new products announcement , mostly concerned with the announced firm's stock abnormal returns, or the impact of c7ompetitors and the whole industry; Now, the high-tech industry with highly specialized , supply chain manufacturers become the key point of the product's success. But there is no literature on analyzing the relationship with new product announcements and supply chain manufacturers .In this study, we combined with new product announcements and industry supply chain. We used event study to analysis Taiwan supply chain of iPad. Market model and GARCH model are used to obtain abnormal return and cumulative abnormal return. we tried to find out the relationship with the new produce announcement and supply chain's abnormal returns.First, empirical results support the hypothesis that new product iPad announcement (day 0) has positive effect on Apple supply chain’s abnormal return in both market model and GARCH model. Second, new product iPad announcement (day 0) makes bigger influences on electronic components manufacturers in the Taiwan supply chain. Third, size variable can use to explain the change of the cumulative average abnormal return.