台灣石化產業暨台灣中油公司未來發展方向

Abstract

台灣的石化產業發展陷入了瓶頸，近15年來除了台塑六輕在麥寮不斷擴建外，中油體系的石化產業卻陷入了停滯狀況，不但無法在國內擴建，即使要到國外建廠，也受限政府的箝制，中油體系的石化業目前正處奄奄一息的狀態。 台灣中油公司是國營企業，負有照顧國內油品市場的義務，政府為了平抑物價因此不讓該公司完全反映原料成本，以致該公司煉油部門虧損累累；然而石化部門因為售價未受政府所管制，又為中油體系石化原料的主要供應者，因此每年都有穩定的收益，是該公司主要的獲利來源。展望台灣中油公司未來的發展，為了公司的穩定獲利及該石化體系的長久發展，因此比較分析類似公司的體質、SWOT及成功關鍵要素後，得出台灣中油公司未來發展的方向為：

1、 台灣中油公司應該提高石化設備投資 2、 新建輕油裂解廠產能至少為80萬噸 3、 無論在國內或國外進行投資均宜儘速進行以免喪失先機 4、 掌握中國經濟成長契機及十二五計畫 5、 掌握ECFA生效後的優勢 6、 面對中東新興國家的競爭宜避開價格競爭而轉投資中下游產業 7、 切入新產品並著重自有技術的發展

Taiwan’s petrochemical industry was mired in difficulties to build new crackers and petrochemical plants in Taiwan during the recent years except Formosa petrochemical company. Taiwan government will not issue the permission to the CPC to invest new cracker in China and other Asia countries as well. CPC petroleum corporation, Taiwan, a state oil company, has the responsibility to fully supply the oil products to domestic market and can not completed reflect the feed cost if oil price jump high to over USD100/bbl. The deficit would not get any compensation from the government. However, the petrochemical business get profit annual as the business is highly competiable in the international market, the governement will not control the sale price. After our analysis of other related international petrochemical companies with different methodology in this study, we get some conclusions as following: a. CPC should raise the investment on Petrochemical business. b. The capacity for the new building nathpha crackers should exceed 800kt. c. Should invest immediately no matter the location d. Forcus on the new business on the Twelfth five year plan of China e. Take the benefit from the effect of ECFA f. To invest the downstream petrochemical product industries to avoid the impact of the low price products from Mid-East countries g. Enter new products’ industries and control own technologies.