2020年台灣雲端運算產業技術前瞻：情境分析法之應用

Abstract

自2008年以來全球陸續發生金融海嘯、物價波動及天然災害等總體趨勢環境的改變，許多企業因不敵環境劇烈變化，不是倒閉就是縮減營運開銷。正逢此時雲端運算的興起，開啟另一波科技創新的商業模式，讓企業能依業務需求隨時擴充及縮減IT資源，就如同水、電等共用事業般，依實際資源的使用多寡而計價付費。本研究主要運用史丹佛研究院（SRI）情境分析法六大執行步驟，來探討研究主題「2020年台灣雲端運算產業技術前瞻」。首先找出雲端運算產業發展之決策焦點與關鍵決策問題，做為情境分析之分析基礎。其次透過初級資料（專家訪談與問卷調查）與次級資料（產業報告、書籍、網站等）之蒐集整理，試圖掌握影響決策焦點之關鍵決策因素（KDF）與外在驅動力量。再經由專家問卷調查的結果，選定具高不確定性與高衝擊程度的驅力群組，將其歸類挑選出三個不確定軸面，分別命名為市場變化軸、制度變化軸及技術變化軸。並以此三個不確定軸面建構出 8（23）種基本情境邏輯，而後邀請專家以其客觀專業的角度票選其中認為最樂觀、最悲觀及最可能發生的三種情境內容，分別命名為「獨領雲騷」、「烏雲密佈」及「風起雲湧」。最後依據此三種情境內容，研擬出未來台灣雲端運算產業所可能採行之因應策略。

After the global financial crisis in 2008, price fluctuation and natural disasters came in succession, and made dramatic change in macroeconomic environment. Thus many companies suffered from the shock are forced to cut down operating costs or just go out of business. Cloud computing gets a good chance to rise from the difficult business environment, and triggers a technology-innovated new business model to help companies expand and reduce IT resources elastically, as paying for the utilities such as water, electricity, according to the actual use. This study mainly applies the six major steps in scenario analysis developed by Stanford Research Institute (SRI), and focuses on the topic: “2020 Taiwan's Cloud Computing Technology Foresight.” This study first, finds out the focus of policy-developing issues and key decision-making factors of cloud computing industry as the essential elements to conduct scenario analysis, and then analyzes primary data, including interviews with experts, and questionnaires, and secondary data, including industry reports, books, websites, etc, in order to get the key decision factor (KDF) and the external driving forces. After identifying driving groups with high degree of uncertainty and impact according to the result of the survey with experts, three axes are selected to stand for uncertainty: “changes in market,” “changes in institution,” and “changes in technique.” This study constructs 8 (=23) kinds of basic scenarios with these three axes, and then ask experts to select the most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely happened scenarios objectively and respectively: “be the only leader,” “fall under the cloud,” and “surging to compete.” Finally, this study tries to find adaptive strategies based on these three scenarios for the future development of cloud computing industry in Taiwan as references.