以模擬分析不良行為對專案交期績效之影響

Abstract

專案管理自二戰發展至今已超過半個世紀，但交期績效始終很差。傳統專案管理認為交期績效之所以不佳，是因為專案環境中的變異所造成，而Goldratt博士則認為影響專案交期績效的並不是環境變異，而是不當的管理方式所產生的種種不良行為，其中包括不良多工、學生症候狀、帕金森定律等行為，他希望藉由改變管理方式，使專案在面臨不良行為的影響時，能有較佳的交期績效。由於Goldratt博士所提出的思維與以往傳統專案管理觀念有很大的差異，目前的文獻中少有此種改善手法的研究論述，故本研究透過電腦軟體模擬實務情況，分析不良行為對專案交期績效造成的影響，並比較傳統專案管理方式與Goldratt博士所提出的關鍵鏈專案管理方式在不良行為影響下的專案交期績效。

While the development of project management during World War II has since exceeded half a century, due date performance remains less than desired. Traditional project management theory places the blame of lackluster due date performance on the project uncertainties. But Dr. Goldratt believes the culprit of lackluster due date performance lies not with project uncertainties, but with detrimental behavior and practices resulting from mismanagement such as Bad Multi-tasking, Student’s Syndrome, and Parkinson’s Law. Applying improved management techniques can alleviate the negative impact on project due-date performance when the project is being affected by detrimental behavior and practices. The perspectives proposed by Dr. Goldratt differ significantly from traditional management concepts and there are very few research discourses that dedicated to them. This study utilizes computer simulations of practical project management scenarios to analyze the effects of detrimental behavior and practices on project due-date performance. Simulations applying traditional management methods and perspectives proposed by Dr. Goldratt were separately conducted and the resulting project due-date performances are compared.