主機板製造產業自有品牌與專業代工經營策略競合分析

Abstract

本研究以生物生態學Lotka-Volterra模型，針對全球主機板製造產業之自有品牌與專業代工兩種迥然不同經營策略之銷售量，以及台灣與中國大陸市場進行適配與預測分析，除了探討何種經營策略能有效掌握顧客的需求與購買的決策過程之外，亦分析海峽兩岸主機板市場之互動情形。過去行銷領域中有關消費者行為的研究多以問卷為主，但是真實的惟實際之消費決策有賴實際銷售量佐證，因此是以，本研究採用以銷售量作為消費者購買意願的之衡量指標，運用Lotka-Volterra模型分別在經營策略以及海峽兩岸市場兩個層面，分別分析其關聯性。 在經營策略方面，研究結果顯示自有品牌與專業代工間存在掠食者與獵物的關係，專業代工策略輔助自有品牌經營策略之成長，並且自有品牌廠商在代工外包過程中外溢知識與技術給專業代工廠商，給予專業代工廠商強烈的成長動能，儘管自有品牌經營策略會侵蝕專業代工經營策略廠商之銷售量，均衡分析結果發現不論何種經營策略均非立刻達到其銷售顛峰，而係透過時間的推演而逐漸擴散之過程，而專業代工經營策略之市場潛量終究會大於自有品牌經營策略之市場潛量。 在海峽兩岸市場分析方面，研究結果顯示中國大陸主機板銷售市場與台灣亦存在存在掠食者與獵物之關係，中國大陸主機板銷售發揮其「口碑效果」，帶動台灣之銷貨成長，反之台灣主機板銷售將壓抑中國大陸之銷售情形，為中國大陸藉由其廣大之內需市場而持續維持其成長動能，隨著時間之經過亦達到兩者之動態均衡點。 經營策略之研究結果隱含專業代工業於產業價值鏈中佔有一席之地；儘管近來普遍強調自有品牌、微笑曲線及藍海策略，各企業無不使出渾身解數以提高顧客忠誠度與滿意度，然而，專業代工的成本與品質控制能因應競爭，強大的專業代工供應鏈能發揮規模經濟，降低成本售價，促進消費者購買意願，主機板產業專業代工經營策略發展空間大；而在海峽兩岸市場分析方面，研究結果隱含中國大陸目前仍處於快速成長階段，距離市場潛量仍有大幅成長空間，此結果與近年來中國大陸經濟高度成長之趨勢一致，此一結論可作為主機板產業相關業者未來營運規劃之參考。而在模型精確度方面，Lotka-Volterra模型之預測自有品牌精確度與Bass模型同等優秀，隱含全球主機板製造產業之自有品牌與專業代工兩種策略僅管迥然不同卻息息相關密不可分，兩者一併考量有助於預測分析。

This investigation employs the Lotka-Volterra model to explore the market competitions among the strategies between own brand manufacturing (OBM) and original equipment manufacturing (OEM) in global motherboard manufacturing industry and among the market of China and Taiwan. The parameters of the Lotka-Volterra mathematical model show the predator- prey relationship existing between the OBM and the OEM strategy. The shipment from OBM strategy will erode the shipment of OEM strategy, while the shipment from the OEM strategy will promote those from the OBM strategy. In addition, the shipment growth from OEM strategy is estimated to substantially increase because OBM firms spill knowledge to OEM fabs, thus enhancing the technical levels and skills for OEM fabs. Furthermore, the results of equilibrium analysis show that the market share of the OEM strategy is larger than that of OBM strategy both in short-term and long-term periods. The shipment of OEM strategy has not yet reached equilibrium points, so the OEM shipments are expected to expand. The equilibrium point between OBM and OEM strategies is calculated to be satisfied with the stable conditions. The results of the competitions among China and Taiwan market analysis indicated the predator- prey relationship also existing between the motherboard market of China and Taiwan. The motherboard market of Taiwan will be helped from the adoption of China market. In contrast, motherboard market of Taiwan will inhibit the growth of China. Futhurmore, the strong domestic demand in China provides the energy of growth. The substaintially growth is expected to see in China because of the higher equilibrium point. The results applied well with the rapid economic growth of China recently and indicated a possible direction of the motherboard industry. Eventually, we find that prediction of motherboard with Lotka-Volterra model is as good as that of the conventional growth model (i.e., Bass model).