相機與手機發展競合之動態分析

Abstract

本研究將會以生物生態學Lotka-Volterra模型來探討手機與相機之出貨量進行適配與預測，藉由專業的DisplaySearch與digitimes 收集的相關研究統計數據及資料，經由Lotka-Volterra 數學模型及Bass擴散模型參數模擬結果探討其關聯性，探討何種經營策略能有效掌握顧客的需求與購買的決策過程。過去行銷領域中有關消費者行為的研究多以問卷為主，但是真實的消費決策有賴實際銷售量佐證，因此，本研究以實際銷售量作為消費者購買意願的指標，運用Lotka-Volterra模型分析相機與手機兩經營策略的關聯性。 研究結果顯示相機與手機經營策略間存在獵食者與獵物的關係，手機策略輔助相機經營策略之成長，並且鏡頭廠商在手機因內嵌相機功能中外溢知識與技術給手機廠商，給予手機廠商強烈的成長動能，且手機經營策略會激發相機經營策略廠商之出貨量，均衡分析結果發現不論何種經營策略均非立刻達到其銷售顛峰，而係透過時間的推演而逐漸擴散之過程，且手機經營策略之市場潛量遠大於相機經營策略之市場潛量，研究結果隱含手機業者於鏡頭產業價值鏈中佔有一席之地；儘管各企業無不使出渾身解數以提高顧客忠誠度與滿意度，然而，手機的成本與品質控制能因應競爭，強大的手機供應鏈能發揮規模經濟，降低成本售價，促進消費者購買意願，故手機產業經營策略發展空間大。 而在模型精確度，不管是配適與預測方面，Lotka-Volterra模型之實驗結果中，相機與手機出貨量精確度明顯優於Bass模型，且結果也隱含相機與手機兩種策略僅管迥然不同卻息息相關密不可分，所以一併考量兩者，將有助於預測分析更精確。最後，本研究發現手機小尺寸競爭不顯著，1.6吋即將在2017年自市場消失，隱含大尺寸手機是未來的主流。

This investigation employs the Lotka-Volterra model to explore the market competitions between mobile phone and camera LCD panel industry. The parameters of the Lotka-Volterra mathematical model show the predator- prey relationship between the mobile phone and the camera quarterly shipments. The shipment from camera will assist the shipment of mobiles, while the shipment from the mobile phone will promote those from the camera. Furthermore, the results of equilibrium analysis show that the market share of the mobile phone is larger than that of cameras. The quarterly sales volumes of mobiles phone and cameras have not yet reached equilibrium points, so their sale values are expected to expand. The equilibrium point between camera and mobile phone is calculated to be satisfied with the stable conditions. Eventually, Lotka-Volterra model is superior to that of the conventional growth model in forecast accuracy because the mutualism is included in the Lotka-Volterra model. Finally, this study predicts that small-sized mobile phone left away from the market, while the large-sized mobile phone is the mainstream in the future.