應用總體經濟與財務比率分析台灣汽車業獲利能力之研究

Abstract

國內汽車產業自2002年台灣正式加入WTO後進口車關稅降低，加上全球推動節能減碳政策、高油價及美國金融風暴等打擊。企業如何透過有效的總體經濟及財務分析，搭配總體經濟景氣的消長，提高企業獲利能力乃企業重要課題之一。 本研究目的擬由總體經濟及財務比率分析影響國內汽車產業獲利能力的關聯性，找出影響汽車產業之關鍵因素，以做為企業財務診斷及規劃參考。 資料來源為2005年第一季至2011年第三季之10項總體經濟比率及24項財務比率資料，以台灣5家汽車上市公司為研究樣本，透過主成份分析萃取出九個主成份其總解釋變異量達81.677%，最後再以逐步迴歸法找出影響獲利能力的關鍵因子。 研究結論與建議如下： 一、汽車業無論整體或本業經營前提下，皆首重資產運用能力因素、成本評估因素及活動力因素。建議汽車產業發揮整體價值鏈，善用資產效率提昇營收及組織精實強化及營業費用管控。 二、汽車業在整體經營之前提下，其獲利能力與現行製造服務業就業形勢等總經因素關聯顯著，顯示民眾在穩定的國內政經情勢下，對未來經濟情勢看好，才有意願購買如汽車等高單價耐久財之意願。

Automobile industry in Taiwan has encountered not only global carbon reduction commitment, but also difficulties such as the impact of high oil price and U.S. financial crisis. Under the circumstance, how to utilize the effective macroeconomics and financial analysis to meet with ups and downs of overall economic flow and thus to increase corporate profitability, has become one of the important tasks for the industries. The purposes of this research are: 1) study the relationship between the macroeconomics and financial ratios that affect the profitability of automobile industry in Taiwan; and 2) find the key factors that influence the target industry and make references of financial diagnosis and planning for the industries. Data resources come from the financial reports and auditor's reports of 5 listed automobile companies, where the time period ranged from 2005 to 2011 (totally 27 quarters.) By using the Principle Component Analysis (10 macroeconomics plus 24 financial ratio variables involved) combined with Step-wise Regression Method, the results and suggestions are as follows: 1.Automobile industry should focus on assets utilization, cost estimation and activities under the circumstance of its main or extended business. Develop its value chain and utilize asset efficiency to promote production, strength organization and control business expenses. 2.Under the circumstance of extended trade, the profitability of automobile industry is significantly related with manufacturing service industries and employment trend. It shows that people are willing to purchase high-value durable goods if they are living in a stabilized political and economic environment and be optimistic with up-coming economic figures.