台灣光伏矽晶片技術選擇模型

Abstract

全球太陽能光電產業(Photovoltaic, PV)目前以多晶矽太陽能為主流，而多晶矽晶片產業為PV的中上游，該產業不僅決定PV的最高轉換效率，也決定約40%~50%的太陽能電池成本。轉換效率與成本決定了該產業的獲利空間，在面臨中國、美國與韓國的競爭壓力下，台灣太陽能多晶矽產業正面臨該以新技術提升轉換效率或擴大規模以降低成本的抉擇。 由於矽原料決定該產業約60~70%的成本，故原物料矽成本比重占整體多晶矽太陽能最重。從轉換效率的角度，太陽能系統產業的轉換效率其根源來至矽晶片而來推斷，未經過相關太陽能製程的矽晶片的轉換效率最高，但經過電池廠、模組廠與系統廠的製程後，其轉換效率將逐漸降低。 台灣目前的太陽能光電產能為世界第二，在面臨原料需仰賴國外進口、缺乏自身內需市場與產業經濟規模的狀況下，台灣多晶矽晶片產值正不斷的萎縮，這產業的技術未來發展成為重要的選擇議題。 本研究利用訪談法與相關文獻的探討找出業者技術發展的重要因子，利用結合DANP與VIKOR針對單晶、類單晶與多晶等、三種矽晶成長技術做出發展因子分析，進而來協助業者新技術選擇的參考。

關鍵字：多晶矽，單晶矽，類單晶，太陽能光電產業，技術選擇

The global Photovoltaic industry at present take the multi-crystal silicon as a mainstream, but the multi-crystal silicon industry is the PV middle and upstream reaches, not only this industry decides PV the highest conversion efficiency, also decides to about 40% to 50% of the cost of solar cells. The conversion efficiency and the cost had decided this industrial profit margin; in facing competition pressure between China, America and under South Koreas, the Taiwan is facing the new technology to enhance the conversion efficiency or scale to reduce the cost of choice. Poly-silicon to determine the industry of about 60~70% of the cost; therefore, the raw material cost proportion occupies the overall multi-crystal silicon industry to be heaviest. From the perspective of the conversion efficiency, conversion efficiency of PV its roots to the silicon from inferred and has not been the highest conversion efficiency of PV process, but after a battery factory, modular plant and plant process conversion efficiency will be gradually reduced. So far, the producing capacity of Taiwan’s Photovoltaic industry is the world second. Under the circumstances of materials’ overseas import and own shortage of domestic demand and the industrial economical scale, Taiwan’s multi-crystal silicon output value unceasing atrophy, the prospective industrial technology will turn into an important selection subject.

This research discovers the important factor of entrepreneur technological development by using the expert interview method and the correlation literature discussion, which use unifies DANP and VIKOR in view of the mono-crystal, multi-crystal and mono-like, three kinds of silicon crystal growth technology to develop factor analysis, and further assists the entrepreneur a new technological selection reference.

Keywords： Multi-crystal, Mono-crystal, Mono-like, Photovoltaic, Selection Model