IC設計業的經營與股價評價—以聯發科為例

Abstract

本研究選擇國內IC設計業龍頭聯發科為個案研究對象，主要討論聯發科於2011年及之後的經營策略，並專訪聯發科內部人士探討未來的經營走向，且用自由現金流量模型估計公司價值。自2010年開始，智慧型手機市占率逐步上升，手機通訊協定因而演進成3G。透過聯發科的個案，希望了解通訊協定改變後，IC設計公司應如何因應以維持本身的競爭力，藉以供未來投資人在選擇IC設計類股票的參考，並期待能對未來產業發展有所建議及貢獻。 比較公司內涵價值及市場上投資人給予的評價，發現個案公司聯發科在通訊協定由2G進化到3G的時點，策略布局並無掌握關鍵技術，造成產品推出速度慢於競爭對手，使得2011年股價大幅下跌，甚至到2011年底已跌破估計的內涵價值。 本篇研究認為聯發科目前的股價略為低估，觀察其在2011年迅速調整策略，應有機會維持目前的內涵價值。且由此個案可以發現，台灣的IC設計產業向來有成本及技術優勢，除了向國外廠商尋求專利協議以求於品牌手機市場競爭外，尚可經營低價手機市場，將銷售對象由歐美或中國大陸轉向其他開發中國家，亦有機會開創藍海商機。

This research choose MTK, the No.1 in IC-designing industry, as the subject of my project study. This paper focuses on MTK’s company-running strategy of 2011 and after, and includes a special report of the future plan of the company’s development, with using free cash flow model to evaluate its value. From 2010, smart phone’s market share gradually rises up, hence the communication standard developed from 2G to 3G. For this phenomenon, the IC-designing companies who possess technology of manufacturing 2G-based product have to change its business model to adapt to it. Through the case study of MTK, we wish to understand after the change of communication standard, what IC-designing companies should do to maintain their competitiveness, and providing reference to future investor. We also hope that this paper could give some suggestions to the future development of this industry. Comparing the company’s firm value and investor’s evaluation, we discovered that MKT didn’t adapt itself to the change of 2G to 3G. But in this year, MKT has changed its strategy to focus on emerging markets, so we think the company’s stock price is undervalued.