兩岸經濟合作框架協議（ECFA）它是振興台灣經濟的萬靈丹還是毒藥丸？基於內地與香港關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排(CEPA)做比較

Abstract

摘要 自從美國和加拿大簽署於1988年了美加自由貿易協定，區域自由貿易協定（FTA）的發展已被廣泛的傳播。在過去二十年中，已觀察到前所未有的自由貿易協定，以促進區域經濟一體化擴散。自由貿易區的形成，目的是在有關各方之間的經濟一體化。自貿區的好處包括提供安全的市場和國內企業的出口機會，拆除的參加國之間的貿易壁壘。安全市場作為一個動機，參與自由貿易協定的重要性越來越大，甚至已擴大區域主義。這是因為大的趨勢走向，區域意味著市場機會正在從一個區域自由貿易協議也被稱為邊際效應，排除潛在的損失，已成為一個越來越嚴重的問題。 台灣是一個島嶼，是依賴出口的經濟發展和增長。其在2002年1月加入世貿組織以來，台灣已開始與世貿組織其他成員進行自由貿易協定談判。然而，台灣是無法取得任何其主要的合作夥伴，如美國，歐盟，東盟，自由貿易協定。即使台灣試圖結束或開始與其他國家和貿易領域的談判，台灣正經歷從政治上孤立中國的政策。如是說，在東亞地區，朝鮮和台灣是僅有的兩個亞洲國家從區域經濟一體化中排除。 2010年6月29日，台灣和中國終於達成了協議，並簽署了自由貿易協定。這就是所謂的“海峽兩岸經濟合作框架協議（ECFA）。 ECFA是1949年中國內戰結束以來的兩個政治對手之間具有里程碑意義的協議。然而，台灣的重點是試圖阻止從邊緣化本身及其周邊地區範圍內的自由貿易協定的組成。ECFA的簽署和生效，台灣正面臨著新的機遇和挑戰，在區域一體化以及全球貿易。 本案例研究的目的是基於內地與香港關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排與兩岸經濟合作框架協議做比較，來評估ECFA的影響。 最後，因為ECFA是東亞區域經濟一體化的趨勢開始由東盟自由貿易區的形成，根據與東盟的貿易數字的邊際效應的一部分，也將進行分析。

Abstract

Ever since United States and Canada had signed U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement on 1988, the development of regional free trade agreements (FTA) has been widely spread. Over the past two decades, unprecedented proliferation of FTA to promote regional economic integration has been observed. The formation of FTA was aimed for economic integration between the parties that’s involved. Benefits of FTA include secure markets and providing export opportunities for domestic companies by dismantling the trade barriers between the participating nations. The importance of secure markets as a motive for participating in FTAs has become even greater as regionalism has expanded. This because the greater tendency towards, regionalism means the potential loss of market opportunity as a result of being excluded from a regional free trade agreement, also known as the marginalization effect, has become an increasing serious issue. Taiwan is an island with economy that’s heavily depends on exports for economic development and growth. Since its accession to WTO in January 2002, Taiwan has begun to conduct FTA negotiation with other WTO members. However, Taiwan was unable to secure FTA with any of its major partners, such as U.S., EU, and ASEAN. Even though Taiwan tried to conclude or to begin negotiation with other countries and other trade areas, Taiwan is suffering from China’s political isolation policy. Thus, in the East Asia region, Taiwan and North Korea are the only two Asian countries that are excluded from the regional economic integration. On June 29, 2010, Taiwan and China have finally come to an agreement and signed their version of FTA. It is so called the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The ECFA is a landmark agreement between the two political rivals since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Nevertheless, the focal point for Taiwan is its attempt to prevent itself from marginalization with the composition of FTAs within its neighboring region. With ECFA signed and become effective, Taiwan is facing new opportunities and challenges in the regional integration as well as global trade. The objective of this case study is to evaluate the implications of ECFA based on the comparison and contrast with CEPA, the FTA signed between Hong Kong and China. Further, an analysis of what ECFA had (not) achieved on Taiwan economy thus far. Finally, since ECFA is part of the East Asian regional economic integration trend that started off by the formation of ASEAN FTA, the marginalization effect based on trade figures with ASEAN will also be analyzed.