能源部門二氧化碳排放基線資料庫之建立與以再生能源進行排放減量之潛力分析

Abstract

為了減緩溫室效應程度，各國無不投入二氧化碳氣體排放減量之工作。然而目前台灣仍缺乏完整公開可供查詢之二氧化碳氣體排放資料庫，另外關於再生能源及碳稅兩種方案同時採用對台灣地區電力部門二氧化碳氣體排放量減量之成效，及欲符合發電現況時再生能源所能達到之輔助電力程度，甚至以再生能源作為主要電力來源程度評估之研究卻付之闕如。因此，本研究以IPCC法先建立二氧化碳排放量歷史排放基線，並推估未來三十年間（2003∼2030）之二氧化碳排放量趨勢；繼而蒐集再生能源及碳稅等兩種二氧化碳減量工具資料，並分別進行成本分析及未來可能情境假設；最後進行碳稅和再生能源於二氧化碳減量之可行減量空間評估，以及欲達到本研究之二氧化碳減量目標時，再生能源之發電可行性評估。 研究結果指出，欲於2020年使二氧化碳排放量持平在2000年之排放量，需以再生能源發電取代傳統能源發電之261,090百萬度發電量；從應用再生能源發電之成本探討，若不提供任何經濟手段，如徵收碳稅，則太陽能單位發電成本最小之情境假設，至2026年方能具備與傳統能源競爭之能力；而若假設風能單位發電成本最小之情境，則已具備與一般傳統能源之競爭能力。另外，以碳稅為經濟手段對傳統能源課徵碳稅，使再生能源具備與傳統能源之競爭力，就太陽能來說需對傳統能源課徵230∼8,370元/噸之碳稅，就風能來說需對傳統能源課徵之碳稅－440∼2,070元/噸之間， 若將此值與歐洲各國所徵收碳稅值相較，則碳稅之徵收對風力發電之誘因將較大；然而就技術面來看，若欲使2020年之二氧化碳排放量維持2000年排放基準，風力發電所需佔地是太陽光電發電所需佔地2∼6倍。因此應可優先考慮離岸式風力發電，方可解決佔地問題且其風力發電潛能更高。

This study establishes Taiwan energy sector CO2 emission baselines first. Then, with collection of those cost and technical feasibility study data about renewable energy and carbon tax, this study analyzes its cost tendency and evaluates several hypothetical assumption about future cost inclination. The feasibility of the CO2 abatement by renewable energy and carbon tax has been estimated. The result shows that renewable energy has to generate 261,900 million kWh under the target that the CO2 emission at 2020 would maintain at the level of it at 2000. Without applying carbon tax, the solar energy at unit cost minimum would not have the competence against the fossil fuel power generation until 2026. On the other hand, enabling the renewable energy to have the competence against the fossil fuel power generation, the carbon tax would be imposed upon the fossil fuel power generation within the range of 230∼8,370 NTD/ton CO2 for enhancing the competence of solar energy, and －440∼2,070 NTD/ton CO2 for enhancing the competence of wind energy. If the goal is to maintain the CO2 emission at 2000 in the year 2020 by using renewable energy only, the total erection land-use required by wind energy would be six times of that solar energy would need. Therefore, the high generation-potential offshore wind energy should be the priority scheme in order to solve the the land problem.