二氧化碳管制方案的探討 - 以電力部門為例

Abstract

本研究旨在利用多目標數學規劃的方法, 以新增機組費用最少及二氧化碳 總排放量最少為二個目標函數, 評估在西元2000年時,因用電需求增加, 而需增設發電機組的同時, 尚需考慮控制二氧化碳排放量的可行規劃方案 。本研究考慮了在有無新增核能機組的情況下, 發電機組的最佳配置 , 同時亦評估其他二氧化碳減量策略, 包括了節約用電、降低尖峰負載、提 升電廠操作效率及二氧化碳處理及處置技術等。由評估結果顯示, 對台灣 地區而言, 抑制每人平均二氧化碳排放量比抑制總排放量至一定水平較易 達成。就電力部門而言, 其二氧化碳排放的控制目標, 若是以維持每人平 均二氧化碳排放量在1990年時的水準不變,則節約用電率達到10% 以上, 尖峰負載需求降低10% , 並配合有新增的核能機組（或是採用二氧化碳的 排放處理及處置技術）, 才有可能達到此排放控制目標。而若想採用將二 氧化碳的總排放量維持在1990年時的水準為目標時, 則必需採用二氧化碳 的排放處理及處置技術, 方能達到這個控制目標。 In this paper a multiobjective programming method is developed to evaluate possible short term CO2 mitigation options for power plants in Taiwan. The objectives are to achieve minimum electric generation cost and minimum CO2 emission. A wide range of options is available for reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. These include fuel alternatives, energy conservation , reduction of peak load ratio, and an adoption of CO2 removal technologies, etc. The results indicate that limiting the CO2 emissions on a per capita basis is easier to be achieved than limiting the total emission. For example, if a new nuclear plant would be introduced by 2000, energy could be conserved at a rate of at least 10%, and peak load could be reduced 10% (or an adoption of CO2 treatment and disposal technologies), then it may be possible that at the year of 2000, CO2 emissions from electric sector could be hold to the 1990 level on a per capita emission basis. While unless the CO2 treatment and disposal technologies are adopted, would the total CO2 emission at 2000 be hold to the 1990 level.