高速鐵路與傳統鐵路市場範圍之研究

Abstract

高速鐵路之優異性能可彌補傳統鐵路速度上之不足。然而，高速鐵路的建 造成本極為昂貴，各國規劃中的高鐵路線往往與既存之傳統鐵路路線有大 比例的重疊。為避免兩者功能重複造成資源之浪費，如何使兩者之角色能 相輔相成，以求整體之利益最大及最佳使用效率，是一項相當重要的課題 ，亦是運輸當局所不能忽視之處。過去研究鐵路問題大都是以供給者的角 度去探討鐵路營運相關問題，而需求量預測常是以羅吉特模式等統計基礎 之法來解決。本研究將以理論推導的方式，從行為分析出發，針對服務同 一運輸走廊之高速鐵路與傳統鐵路系統，透過"一般化總旅行時間"之比較 來探討旅客之選擇行為，繼而求算出不同起迄型態旅客之供需特性關係式 ，建立一兩鐵路系統需求及地理市場區隔模式。透過模式的分析，可清楚 了解出高速鐵路與傳統鐵路全線市場分佈狀況。並將模式分析之架構整理 成一可資運用之演算法則，利用Mathematica數學套裝軟體，以影響旅客 選擇主要因素之敏感度分析，探討不同營運策略下兩鐵路系統市場範圍變 動之情況。研究結果顯示，在一路線重複而且車站共構之高速鐵路與傳統 體路鐵路系統，高速鐵路將主宰城際間之中、長程旅次市場，傳統鐵路僅 在短程區間之通勤及轉運旅次市場中有發展的空間。研究結果亦顯示旅客 在面臨兩鐵路系統之選擇時，兩鐵路列車之發車時刻差值將是旅客選擇之 主要影響因素，且對其是否搭乘傳統鐵路之影響尤其明顯。 High speed rail (HSR) lines are usually planned to serve the corridors with the existing conventional rail (CR) lines. This paper formulates a new analytical model on estimating market boundaries of HSR and CR in a fundamental way and from individual behavioral point of view. Passengers are divided into two types by whether they can take a HSR train directly to their destination sta tions or not. The optimal route choice of a passenger is assumed by minimizing his "genera- lized total travel time", which is composed of different travel time components and fare (converted to time by an individual- dependent time value). The relationship among demand-supply attributes such as time value, train departure time, speed, trip length and fares is explored to identify market boundaries by comparing different routing strategies for each type of passen- gers. Individual route choices are aggregated by accumulating a time value transformed probability density function so as to estimate the spatial distribution of markets for two types of rail lines. On basis of this model, a better understanding on how different operating strategies affect the markets of two rail systems could be caught quantitatively by consolidating the derived market shares for two types of passengers. HSR is shown to serve most of medium to long trip markets and CR is shown to serve commuter trips or as a feeder market of HSR.