專案推移模式之建構及應用-以台灣武器策略為例

Abstract

摘要 本研究應用專案推移理論(Project Advancement, PA)建構研發資源配置模型，在「專案為基礎之資源配置與(或)移轉(PBRAT)」前提下，分別以集中化序列推進策略(CSAS)與型2混合推進策略(Type II MAS)為資源配置策略，並就研發專案多重水準(Multi-level)與研發時程多個階段(Multi-period)為考量，運用0-1線性規劃、目標規劃與效用理論，建構不同配置策略下之研發預算配置模型，並發展求解演算法。研究個案分析國防科技研發資源配置模式與武器系統獲得政策為目標，在資源限制與多重專案環境下執行研發計畫，以提升國防科技能力策略推行。 專案推移理論為一決策分析與資源規劃之整合性理論，理論內涵由「確認基礎目標；研訂專案及專案目標；辨識價值目標；決定專案價值期限及類型；評估可行專案進入（執行）策略；評選專案推移策略；建構細部資源分配模式並求解」等七大步驟組成。本研究除應用此理論建構國防科技研發資配置模型，並比較各國武器系統獲得發展情況，以瞭解國防科技能力之影響因素，並探討台灣武器系統獲得政策無法達成之原因。 專案推移理論不僅解決衝突情況下資源配置與使用順序之問題，同時更強調基礎目標之確認，對於問題處理提供一套從上層策略擬定到下層任務執行之完整決策分析與資源規劃模式。由研究結果得知，國防科技研發資源配置模式之建構，在不同資源配置策略下，考慮多期預算核撥與多等級達成水準之國防科技研發議題，在預算與時間之限制下，最大化研發目標達成。

ABSTRACT In this research, the theory of Project Advancement (PA) was used to construct the R&D military technology resources allocation model. It is based on the “project-based resource allocation and/or transfer (PBRAT) policy”, using project resource allocation strategy of “Centralized Sequential Advancement Strategy (CSAS)” and “Type II mixed advancement strategy (Type II MAS)”, and also applied 0-1 Linear Programming, Goal Programming and Utility Theory to construct models under the conditions of not only for multi-project environment but for multi-level and multi-period assessment. Project Advancement (PA) integrated the decision analysis and resource programming. The connotation of PA consists of seven steps. The 7 steps are to confirm the fundamental objective, decide the necessary projects and projects’ goal, identify value-perspective objectives, differentiate the time-lengths and modes of value-base time limit, evaluate a reasonable project entry strategy, evaluate a suitable project advancement strategy, formulate the resource-allocation and/or transfer model, to find an effective solution procedure. In addition to constructing the R&D models of military technology by PA, this research also compares the present situations and polices of five nations, and analyzes to obtain impact factors of weapon system acquisition. Furthermore, the likely bottlenecks the acquisition policy of Taiwan were investigated, and recommendations regarding acquisition policy were made. PA model, thus developed, provided a complete model to construct the decision analysis and resource allocation for formulating strategies and implementing tasks. Results show that, the R&D military technology resources allocation model can maximize the objective achievement under limited resources and time, and multi-project environment. Not only will PA be utilized to resolve the problem of resources allocation and using priority, it also emphasizes identification of the fundamental objectives.