網際網路平台用於技術前瞻專家意見收斂之研究

Abstract

本研究的主要貢獻，是真實建構一套技術前瞻即時德菲法網路平台系統，本即時德菲法網路平台適合封閉式的同步與不同步型式的技術前瞻，並達成技術前瞻時間上縮短、成本上經濟，以及滿足專家不在同一地域的情況。

面對經濟全球化，許多先進國家均認知到科技、資訊和知識對產業競爭力的重要性，因此各國政府透過科技政策的推動，致力研發與創新技術進而推動產業升級，保持其在全球競爭中的優勢。然而科技發展並不全然由技術趨勢所決定，各國的政治、經濟與社會影響皆會左右其結果，因此為克服「技術預測」方法上的盲點，自1980年代中期起始，「技術前瞻 (Technology Foresight)」與「研究前瞻(Research Foresight)」的概念開始替代「技術預測」，並逐漸被廣泛引用於各國科技政策的決策體系中，作為國家政策規劃的輔助工具。技術前瞻並不是只預測某項目未來可能的情境，而是面對未來有可能出現的很多情境中，選擇最適當的情境，集中資源採取適當行動，並朝此情境努力。

「投資在電子商務的報酬率是多少？」「你瘋了嗎？這是哥倫布發現新大陸啊！」這是Intel前董事長Andy Grove形容電子商務將為我們這一世代所帶來的鉅大變革，隨著網際網路使用者的急速成長，一場電子商務革命的浪潮，正迅速的席捲全球。台灣地區上網人口約1,523萬人，寬頻網路使用人數約1,240萬人，約有七成五(74.89%)家庭(551萬戶)可以上網，六成七(67.03％)家庭(493萬戶)實際使用寬頻上網。台灣的網際網路發展在世界上的排名非常前面，因此極適合發展以網際網路為平台的技術前瞻系統。目前以網際網路為平台的技術前瞻系統仍處於發展階段，主要以美國、芬蘭及日本最積極。

本研究首先探討技術前瞻目前全球發展的概況與趨勢，及研究群體決策系統的發展與如何適用於技術前瞻，並從全球的技術前瞻案例中找出如何評選關係者參與技術前瞻活動，分析全球技術前瞻所使用的方法確認適合用於網際網路，建構即時德菲法網路平台，最後透過同步與非同步的實際技術前瞻案例確認此法的可行。

The main contribution of this study is the establishment of a real-time Delphi online platform for technology foresight, which is suitable for closed synchronized/unsynchronized technology foresight, reduces the needed time and cost, and allows experts in different regions to work together. Facing the globalization of economy, many advanced nations recognize the important influence of technology, information and knowledge on industrial competitiveness and are implementing technology policies in order to maintain competitive by introducing new technologies and industrial upgrades. The development of technology, however, is not entirely determined by technological trends, and the political, economical, and social influences in different societies will shape different outcomes. In order to address the blind-spot in technology foresight, the concepts of technology foresight and research foresight have started to replace technology forecasting since mid-1980s and have been widely used in different countries’ decision-making processes of technology-related policies. Technology foresight does not just involve predicting the future possible situations of a certain issue but also choosing and focusing on a most appropriate scenario out of a number of possibilities. “What is the return rate of investing in Electronic Commerce?” “Are you insane? This is like Columbus discovering the New World!” Just like the analogy given by the ex-president of Intel, Andy Grove, e-commerce has made huge changes to our generation and is spreading throughout the world as the internet population is growing rapidly. The internet population in Taiwan is about 15.23 million; 12.4 million have broadband internet connections, 74.89% of the households (5.51 million) have access to the internet and 67.03% of the households (4.93 million) have broadband connections. This indicates that Taiwan’s internet development is very advanced and is appropriate for the internet-based technology forecast system, which is currently being developed actively by nations such as the U.S., Finland, and Japan. In this study, we look at the current global status and trend of technology foresight, analyze the development of Group Decision Support System and how it is utilized in technology foresight, determine the stakeholders to participate in technology foresight from global cases, analyze and determine whether the methods used in global technology foresight is appropriate for the internet, establish a real-time, online Delphi platform, and confirm its feasibility through synchronized and unsynchronized technology foresight cases.