國際海纜租購創新決策模式之研究

Abstract

中文摘要 目前台灣國際海纜市場上有兩項的重要產品：一為「國際海纜出租」，簡稱IPLC，契約期限通常為一年，取得的代價為每月的租費或年租費，電路類型有半電路與全電路；另一產品為「長期使用權」，俗稱IRU，通常契約期限十五年，擁有IRU的成本有購買成本及維護成本，每年的維護成本為購買成本的4%，電路類型為全電路。在2001年以前取得海纜頻寬的方式有：租用IPLC、參與傳統電信業者共投資Club海纜建設取得半電路的所有權與使用權、或者與其他海纜業者交換電路。自從2000年起開放國際海纜市場，隨者私有海纜的登陸台灣，IRU的產品正式出現在台灣的國際海纜市場，使得取得海纜的頻寬方式除了投資與交換外，還有選擇「租用IPLC」或「購買IRU」的機會。 私有海纜不但帶來了IRU這項新產品也為海纜市場帶來大量的頻寬，原因有三：1. 電信自由化使得新加入者有機會分食電信市場這塊大餅，2. 網際網路對於頻寬的需求量每三個月增加一倍的神話讓人有所期待，3. 海纜技術的發展使得海纜每單位成本大幅下降，因此誘使投資者進行大規模的海纜建造。然而，網際網路到了2000年便正式宣告泡沫化，站在需求面來看，實際上海纜頻寬的使用量雖然仍大幅地增長中，但相較於埋在海底的光纖電纜承載量，差距甚遠的使用率難以創造足夠的營收去支撐私有海纜的財務狀況。因此，使得原本因自由競爭、成本降低造成海纜價格劇跌的海纜市場，再度面臨因私有海纜二度易手，導致取得成本再次調降的新局面。海纜市場由原本的供給不足的買方市場變遷到供過於求的買方市場，使得像中華電信這樣的業者在邏輯上與策略上對於取得國際頻寬的方式可以有不同以往的做法。 本研究的重點即站在頻寬需求者的立場，針對變遷後的海纜市場，提出有別於傳統決策「租用IPLC」或「購買IRU」的方法，試圖達到降低購買風險與購買成本的目的。傳統上的做法，不論是「租用IPLC」或「購買IRU」通常以市場最低價或公司預算為目標，一但選擇購買IRU後，契約期間15年內必須履行購買IRU的購買義務。本研究的做法是：首先，利用動態反覆關係法對租購選擇進行判斷，其次便是在選擇「購買IRU」時，同時搭配選擇權的概念，使得在最後期限前的每一年，買方都可以依當時的市場條件重新決策是否放棄手中的IRU，以規避海纜價格再次劇跌的購買風險，最後並引用國際貿易中價格訂定的做法，對購買IRU的維護成本提出合理的計價水準。經由以上的做法，本研究完成由買方主導海纜交易市場的創新租購決策模式，作為企業日後尋求國際海纜資源時的決策依據。

ABSTRACT Taking the advantage of submarine cable market deregulation in 2000, Asia Global Crossing obtained the first grant of cable landing license to land and operate a private fiber-optic cable system in Taiwan. The serious impact on Taiwan international bandwidth market was caused by AGC when AGC won a competitive bid over the other players to provide the capacity of TANet's international Internet connectivity between Taiwan and the USA. In addition to the existing IPLC (International Private Leased Circuit), a new product IRU(indefeasible right of use) was introduced to meet the demand for international bandwidth service and the sale of capacity in the form of IRU seems to be the best method to generate cash revenue for private cable operators. The international bandwidth market in Taiwan is undergoing major change following the private cable landing, especially for the regional incumbents. The supply of submarine bandwidth has grown spectacularly over the past four years but the demand for international bandwidth continued to lag owing to the after Internet bubble. The surge of new submarine capacity had a particularly strong effect on capacity prices which have dropped at a breathtaking rate on international routes. The STM-1 lease prices have fallen by more than 80 percent since mid-year 2000. Under the prices tumbling circumstances, the issue whether the IRU, compared with IPLC, is the right choice for international bandwidth operators has become the focus of this research. In this research we present a new methodology of lease versus purchase decision. In the view of the international bandwidth market with dynamic demand, this research applies the method of dynamic programming to compare the accumulated cost caused by IPLC and IRU and to find out, in terms of the minimum cost and lowest risk of acquisition of the international bandwidth, the better bandwidth acquisition solution. The application of real option on investment decisions is also introduced to realize the possibility of improving sales terms and conditions for the buyer’s market. Those improvements are such as the use of protective option and reduction of O&M cost. Finally, this research proposes the suggestions and recommendations for purchasing IRU to international bandwidth operators.