毒性化學物質公路運送路線替選方案多目標決策之研究

Abstract

毒性化學物質公路運送路線替選方案多目標決策之研究 研 究生:蘇傳翔 指導教授：吳水威 國立交通大學交通運輸 研究所 摘 要 近年來由於我國工商業高度發展，經濟成長快速，人民生活水準提高，危 險物品不論在需求 量與生產量均大量增加，因而社會上充斥著各類型危 險物品，此類危險物品多半具有危險性 。在國外對於危險物品運輸之行 為之管理相當重視，且明定法規管理。反觀國內對於危險物品運送管理方 面，其相關法規並未完善以及落實執行。在國內之危險物品主要以陸運運 送為主，若於近距主，若於近距離之各工廠、倉庫間，多使用管道運送方 式；而在中、長途距離之各廠房間則一般多以陸運一般多以陸運之公、鐵 路運送，而台灣地區之公路路網之開發較之鐵路路網健全，並且較之鐵路 運輸之無法提供及戶服務更佔優勢，故於台灣地區一般危險物品多以公路 運送。由於運送危險物係為生產至使用過程中必要之一環，且運送過程中 涉及交通安全、公共安全及環境保護。然而面對於眾多之危險物品，各類 型物品之物理化學特性不一，而毒性為物質特性之一，也就是物質傷害一 生物體之能力，且毒性會隨著其使用狀態增高或降低，並且在運送過程中 若發生事故或不慎洩漏，都容易使得生物體遭受嚴重之傷害。是故基於此 ，本文僅就毒性化學物質運送路線選擇構建一決策模式，可以提供運送業 者或廠商在訂定運送計畫時之之參考，更可提供做為主管機關在核准或規 劃管制運送路線時之依據。 而針對於毒性化學物質運送時所行經之路線 ，必須了解此路線是否最安全、事故發生之可能性是否最小、事故時所影 響之嚴重程度及範圍大小等。毒性化學物質在運送過程中充滿許多不不確 定性，產生事故之機會不一，所以對於路線選擇之評估加入不確定性，以 此進行規劃、建立毒性化學物質之運輸策略以及災害、事故緊急應變體系 ，以降低毒性化學物質運送意外事件對民眾、環境及財物之損害。由於毒 性化學物質運送之路線選擇呈相當大之不確定性，故本故本研究希望能將 各評估指標加入其不確定性，以結合模糊集合理論與分析階層程序法來探 討 討路線選擇之問題，並且加入多評估準則方法評估毒性化學物質道路 運送路線以判斷路線選擇之衡量指標，建立毒性化學物質運送路線選擇之 決策模式。 The Study of Applying Multiple Criteria Decision Method on Evaluation Alternatives of Toxic Chemicals Transportation Routes Student：Chuan-Hsieng Su Advisor：Shoei- Uei Wu Institute of Traffic and Transportation National Chiao Tung University Abstract Recent years, due to economic properity are high promotion in industry and peoples income are increasing, so the living level are raised up. The hazardousmaterials increase generous in demand and production, and they have mostly danger. In abroad, it is correspondent care about management of hazardous transportation, on the contrary the regulations of hazardous transportationt are not perfect and implement in Taiwan. Due to the developement of highway network is more complete than railroad in Taiwan, for reason the main shipping model of hazardous transportation is by using highway. In hazardous transportation process, it implicate in traffic safety, public safety, and environment protection. However, with regard to numerous hazardous materials, the properties of physical and chemical of those hazardous materials are not the same, and toxic is one of material properties, that is, ability that materials injure a creature, and its venom can vary as its using condition. Hence, this study is only to toxic chemicals to constitute an evaluation model of alternatives of toxic chemicals transportation routes. During selecting the optimum alternative of transportation routes, objectives of different group must be considered. Each objectives is not exact same with evaluating criteria, there is also confliction between objectives, ifthe confliction is not avoidable, resolve this by group decision method and AHP.Criteria evaluate that proposal, due to deficit of index information or state by linguistic variable, apply in fuzzy theory to solve this problem. The resulted synthetical performance index are fuzzy, applying ranking fuzzy numbers to solve , proceeding selection of alternative of transportation routes of toxic chemicals. Final, A numerical example is demonstrated to show how to use this evaluation model to evaluate and decide the optimum alternative of transportation routes.