都會區內中長程城際運輸高速鐵路與航空之市場分析

Abstract

高速鐵路具有較大的服務容量可以紓解目前中長程城際運輸航空市場 的擁擠。近年來，高鐵的興建與否及其站址的選擇，曾引起高度關切。同 時，旅客如何因其時間價值、旅次長度、旅次產生時間、起迄點位置，及 高鐵與航空供給特性、場站與路網規劃配置之不同，而影響其對兩者之選 擇，以致高鐵與航空之市場大小，亦為運輸當局與營運者所不能忽視的課 題。 過去有關高鐵與航空的市場研究，大都以羅吉特模式之型式來分 析，但在總計之過程中，對時間價值、需求產生時間與空間位置之變異， 卻無法避免總計之誤差]Aggregation Bias）。本研究擬從問題的根本處 出發，建立一新的解析性模式，考慮上述需求的相關變數，結合高鐵與航 空的特性，使用理論推導的方式，針對服務同一中長程城際運輸走廊的高 鐵與航空系統，透過 "一般化總旅行時間" 之比較來探討旅客之選擇行為 ，畫出特定規劃配置、營運策略與需求狀況下，都會區內高鐵與航空之市 場範圍，進而分析當規劃配置、營運策略與需求狀況變動時，高鐵與航空 市場範圍的變動情形。進一步，並以連續性空間模式，將個別選擇行為總 計為總體市場，綜合考慮都會區內之人口密度分佈，高鐵與航空之排班時 刻表，不同旅客之旅次產生時間與時間價值，求算高鐵與航空之市場佔有 率與市場運量。 研究結果顯示，都會區內高鐵與航空之市場範圍分界 圖，可作為中長程城際運輸旅客依其旅次起點位置判別是否應選擇高鐵或 航空搭乘，以及旅客從起點至場站之相關接駁路線的決策參考。而高雄都 會區之實證研究顯示，改善高鐵站之地面接駁運具與路線確實能夠有效提 昇高鐵之市場佔有率，此外，對相關參變數敏感度分析之結果亦可作為台 灣未來高速鐵路與航空市場的規劃營運之參考。 The high capacity of high speed rail(HSR) can relieve the congestion of current intercity air transport(AT) flows. In recent years, the decisions on whether to construct HSR and where to locate HSR stations in metropolitan areas have attracted a lot of attention. Therefore, addressing the problem of how passengers will choose between HSR and AT on basis of their time values, trip length, origin and destination(O&D) locations, trip departure time, supply attributes of two transportation systems and terminal and expressway locations becomes important and can't be neglected. Previous studies on analyzing HSR and AT markets mostly used Logit model. However, variations in time value, trip departure time and O&D locations were usually neglected in aggregation procedures, and aggregation bias can't thus be completely prevented. This study will develop a new analytical model for exploring this problem in a fundamental way. We will formulate a model on estimating the markets of HSR and AT serving medium to long range intercity corridors. Passengers' optimal choices are assumedby minimizing their generalized travel time and then the market areas of HSR and AT will be analyzed subject to a planned operating condition. In addition, we will further explore how the market areas of HSR and AT change as planning schemes, operating strategies and demand conditions vary. The markets of HSR and AT will be aggregated by using continuous space modeling and considering population density, schedules of HSR and AT, variations in trip departure time and time value. The results show that, figures on market area boundaries between HSR and AT can provide passengers to decide the least generalized travel time mode and corresponding ground access route to the terminal depending on their origin locations. The case study for Kaohsiung metropolitan area shows that the improvements of ground access routes to the HSR terminal can significantly increase the market share of HSR. In addition, the results of sensitivity analysis on demand-supply related parameters shed light on operational and planing issues for policy makers and operators.