民間參與省轄捷運建設方式之研究

Abstract

傳統上，交通建設之經費主要是由政府每年編列預算來執行，但由於近年 來政府之財政日益惡化，交通建設所需之龐大經費，恐非政府能夠負擔。 截至民國八十四年為止，中央政府之負債金額已高達一兆兩千億元。因此 ，引進民間資金，將有助於省轄捷運之建設。本研究以文獻回顧探求民間 參與捷運建設之考慮因素，並以模擬分析求出民間可參與捷運建設之條件 ，最後運用此一條件，民間參與省轄捷運建設之可行方案。民間參與捷運 建設之主要目的為營利，本研究以營運收益、不動產開發收益及民間參與 中運量全線、中運量機電系統及高運量機電系統之成本計算其內生報酬率 在不動產開發收益為50、100、150、200億元及路線長度為10~30公里、運 量20,000~200,000人/日、特許年限30年，及內生報酬率15%之假設條件下 ，找出民間可參與之捷運建設項目。經由本研究模擬分析結果顯示，在內 生報酬率為15%時，不動產開發200億元以下，民間並無投資全線中運量捷 運系統之可行性。投資高運量機電系統之路線長度，在不動產開發收益 為50億元時，最長為17.5公里，在不動產開發收益為100億元時，其投資 之路線長度為30公里。投資中運量機電系統之路線長度，在不動產開發收 益為50、100、150億元時，最長分別為12公里、24公里、30公里。對於民 間參與省轄捷運建設之方式，在內生報酬率為15%時，計有台南紅線、台 南藍線、桃園紅線及桃園藍線之機電系統可供民間參與 It has been a tradition that the budget for public transportation constructions is always sponsored by the government under an annual basis. However, as the financial situation of the government deteriorating, it can no longer support such funding for public transportation framework. As you can see, at the end of 1995, the budget deficit of the central government of Taiwan is 1.2 trillion dollars. It should help the provincial rapid transit construction by introducing private corporation investment.The thesis discusses the factors that private sectors would consider when they participated in the rapid transit constructions by paper review and uses collected data to simulate the possible conditions that private companies will participate in the construction of rapid transit system. Lastly, one can propose a most likely project to a private firms under the basis of such result.The major interest of private sectors involved in rapid transit is to gain profit. This research is going to find the most suitable projects for private firms to run a rapid transit. It is based on conditions such as inner revenue of return is 15%, real estate development revenues are 5, 10, 15, and 20 billion NT dollars, the distance of each route is 10 to 30 Km, transportation rate is 20 to 200 thousand people per day, and 30 years of permit. The projects that private sectors would run are full service of medium capacity transit system (MCTS), and the mechanical and electrical system of MCTS and heavy rail rapid transit (HRRT). Computer simulation data have shown that when the inner revenue of return is 15 % and real estate development is 20 billion NT dollars, there is no possibility for private firms to run a full service of MCTS. The longest distance for private sectors to invest in the mechanical and electrical system of a HRRT with real estate development revenue is 5 billion NT dollars is 17.5 kilometer where as the real estate development revenue is 10 billion NT dollars, the distance is 30 Km. On the other hand, the distances for the investment of mechanical and electrical system of a MCTS with real estate development revenue are 5, 10,15 billion NT dollars are 12, 24 , and 30 Km. When the IRR is 15%, the routes for private sectors to participate in the construction of mechanical and electrical system are blue line and red line of Tainan and red line and blue line of Taoyuan.