標題: 整體服務數位網路之市場需求分析
A market demand analysis of Integrated Service Digital Network
作者: 周宏明
Chou, Hong-Ming
曾正權
Tseng Cheng-Chuan
管理科學系所
關鍵字: 整體服務數位網路;德菲法;基本接取;原級接取;相關分析;市場潛量;ISDN;Delphi Method;Basic Acess;Primary Access;Correlation Analysis;Potential market demand
公開日期: 1996
摘要: 整體服務數位網路是一種數位式通信網路,藉由用戶終端設備、介面
電路及交換網路等,提供端對端之數位連接,而使各種不同之終端設備可
連接在同一網路上,以提供語音、數據及影像傳送之通信服務。 由於
此項服務利用單一網路,即可滿足人們在資訊化社會中快速、大量及多媒
體傳送之通信需求,近幾年來在歐、美、日等國家其用戶之成長相當快速
;反觀其在國內自1995年4月開始推出商用以來,成長卻顯得相當遲緩。
本研究先從功能面、應用面及國內外現況加以分析,再應用數量預測方法
及德菲法(Delphi method)分別由短期及長期來探討此項通訊服務在國內
之未來市場需求,主要內容如下︰(一)短期以逐步迴歸及指數模式預測至
民國86年12月之用戶數。(二)找出影響用戶使用此項服務意願之主要因素
,並利用相關分析方法,探討各 項因素與未來需求之相關性。(三)分
析各行業與一般住宅用戶對此項服務之可能應用,以界定其各項應用之主
要目標市場。(四)長期以德菲法推估國內自1997至2001年未來五年之用戶
數。 最後綜合前述研究之結果,對未來發展提出各項策略與建議。
The Integrated Service Digital Network is a digitalized
communication network. By the connecting of Customer Premise
Equipment and digital interface through the switching network,It
can provide voice,data,and image communication services. Owing
to the desktop multifunctions personal computers and
internetbrowsers have reached critical mass,ISDN has become one
of the mostwidely deployed digital technologies.Over the past 5
years,the demandof ISDN has a dramatic growth in Europe,United
States,and Japan. In Taiwan,this service is commercialized
since April of 1995,and up tonow, there is only about 3000 Basic
rate access (BRA) users. This study analyzes the applications
of ISDN,and selects optimal forecasting approaches to forecast
the short-term and long-term marketdemand of ISDN services.
Follows are the main content of this study:1.Forecast the amount
of ISDN BRA users on the end of 1997 by using the stepwise
autoregression and exponential model.2.Analyze the key factors
which will influence people to use ISDN service,and the
correlation between these factors and future demand.3.Segment
the ISDN market by its different applications. 4.Estimate the
market demand in Taiwan from 1997 to 2001 by using the Delphi
method.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT850457005
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/62163
Appears in Collections:Thesis