財務槓桿與營運槓桿之底換關係--以日本上市公司為例

Abstract

鑑於過去財務槓桿與營運槓桿抵換關係的國內外實證研究，並未獲致 一致性的結果，加上我國發展歷程沿襲日本島國經濟發展模式，本研究因 而使用自1983至1992年日本上市公司之財務資料，根據較大的樣本數，分 別以成長率，盈餘變異及產業等變數，運用相關係數與迴歸分析之統計方 法，探討上述變數對抵換關係的影響。本研究獲致以下幾點結論：一、在 未引入其他權變因素前，抵換關係為不顯著之負相關。惟引用本研究之權 變因子後，兩槓桿間之抵換關係顯著改變。二、在本研究的五個成長變 數(銷貨，稅前息前純益，淨利，固定資產，總資產)中，只有銷貨，總資 產成長越高的公司越不具有抵換關係，故成長率變數的選取，對抵換係的 權變研究，有著很大的影響。三、關於餘變異方面，風險變數的選取，非 常重要。在迴歸係數的分析中，顯示只有淨利成長率的變異越，其抵換關 係越顯著。四，在產業分析方面，以產業來分類的分析結果並不顯著。本 研究為權變因素宜用銷貨成長率以打破產業的界限，才是真正區分抵換關 係的因子。五、銷貨成長狀況高低與其他因子的組合下，抵換關係亦呈現 不同的結果，由獲利能力，公司或固定資產的大小，會影響企業融資能力 ，負債比率及承擔總風險大小的能力，因而對抵換關係成立與否造成不同 程度的影響。 Abstract: Is the trade-off between a firm's operating and financial leveragesalways holding true? While it sounds logical from the financial theories andintuition points of view, empirical results are not unanimously supportive. Thepaper attempts to validating under what contingencies the trade-off hypothesiswill hold true using Japanese data. The two contingencies,a firm's growth andrisk levels,are empirically explored in the research. Empirical results usingJapanese data have confirmed hypothesized contingencies. First, the level offirm's sales growth rate does affects its trade-off behavior. The higher a firm's sales growth rate tend to lead to, the lower level of trade-off. Second,how one measures a company's risk will affect whether the trade-off relation-ship exists. By using the variation of the net income growth rates as the proxyto a firm's risk, we find that the higher a firm's risk level, the higher degree of trade-off relationship. In addtion, the industry category per se seems not a useful contingent variable to differentiate the trade-off relation-ship . Finally, considering sales growth rate and other contingent variablessuch as profitability and company size simultaneously, we have obtained mixedresults. The higher the profitability or the larger the company size lead toweaken the hypothesized trade-off relationship.