預先下單價格折扣模式之構建

Abstract

在訂單式組裝生產中，管理階層所面臨的最大難題在於如何減少下游需求不確定性的影響。一般採用安全存量作為吸收不確定性的控制手法；除此之外，製造要求顧客在備料點提供需求預測，隨之依需求預測資訊進行物料之採購。因備料點與顧客下單時點的不同，造成需求預測的不精確。進而影響備料的成效，若能誘導顧客提前下單，減少因高估或低估顧客需求所造成之存貨或缺貨成本，將是製造商減少需求不確定性影響的另一手法。 當顧客提前於備料時點下單，組裝廠可以此可靠度較高之需求預測資訊進行備料，但同時顧客所負擔之風險將增加。為達雙方的合作以產生系統成本節省的效用，賣方須給予買方適當的價格折扣，作為提前下單的誘因。本研究發展一套通用的量化決策模式-預先下單價格折扣模式，在不降代系統服務水準的前提下，增進買賣整體系統效益；分別從買、賣雙方觀點探討習方與賣方在各種預先下單比例下，願意接受與提供之價格折扣，進而以系統合作觀點探討最佳預先下單比例及可行的價格折扣區間，提供決策者參考。最後以一案例說明此決策模式。

In an seeemly-to -orer production system, manufacturers usually face the challenge of how to deal with the problem of customers' demand uncertainty. Ingeneral customers on each month are requested to present manfacturer their demand forecasts for the next few months. Th forecasts would provide manager as a reference for purchase of materials for future production. However the demand forecasts are usually inaccuracy, manufacturer perform two strategies to manage the inaccuracy of demand forecasts. One is by setting certin elvels of safety stocks, and the other is by adjusty the demand forecast. However, the two decisions are not enough to absort the effects of demand uncertainty. In this study, we propose the third strategy that is to stimulate customers to make advanced pruchase. When customers make advanced puchases at manufacturers' repenishment-time, manufacturers could use the reilable information to replenish the material, but the customers would charge more risk therewith. To compensate the customers' risk, manufacturer should afford pricing discount to consumers as incentive to make adanved puechases. This paper develops a discont-pricing model for customers' advance puchase. Under various advanced purchase ratios, we discuss the discount pricing which the seller will offer and the buyer will accept then determines the optimal advanced purchase ratio and the feasible discount price. Finaly, we use an exemple to illustrate the procedure of this model.