基隆港對基隆市產業之經濟影響研究

Abstract

基隆港為北部地區的國際商港，鄰近大台北地區，為北部的一個主要輸出入門戶。過去基隆港雖然帶來了基隆市產業的繁榮發展，但是近年來基隆港在台灣進出口運輸的優勢已大不如前，以往以港為主的地方產業面臨發展瓶頸。基隆市開始重新思考其產業發展的方向，基隆港對基隆市正面的影響有多大，為一見仁見智，仍未有定論的問題。瞭解了港對地方產業的影響，可以據以定出產業發展方向，並據以擬定產業發展政策，為基隆市產業發展一相當重要的課題。 本研究對基隆港對基隆市的產業經濟「產生何種影響」、「影響的大小」以及「如何影響」進行探討。本研究經由對基隆市產業資料與基隆港營運狀況的分析，找出其間的關係，界定出港埠依賴產業，並利用港埠衝擊理論與投入產出分析來計算基隆港對基隆市產業產值與產業人口的影響。 本研究發現基隆港在民國41到62年，對基隆市總人口有顯著的關係，符合基隆港為基隆市經濟基礎的推論。從民國62年到民國82年間，基隆市人口雖然受基隆港影響不大，但產業人口仍然和吞吐量有密切關係存在，基隆港對產業的成長有正面影響。基隆港在基隆市有不能忽視的影響，不僅基隆港依賴產業本身對基隆市產生重要影響，其所產生的間接及衍生影響更是非常重要。

Keelung Port, an international commercial port near Taipei, is a primary import-export doorway of the north Taiwan. In the past several decades, Keelung Port has contributed a lot to the development of industry in Keelung City. But now, it has lost its leading role and competitiveness in the international trade. The local industry, which was based on the port, has faced a bottleneck in its development. Keelung City start to reconsider the direction of development of its industry. To what extent is the economic impacts of Keelung Port on the industry in Keelung City is a controversial problem. In order to decide the direction of development of industry and to make the industry policy, it is important to understand these impacts. The paper is to investigate "what kind of impact" Keelung Port has on the industry of Keelung City, "to what extent" is the impacts and "how these impacts work." The paper analyses the development data of local industry and the operation of the port, finds out their relationships and defines the port-dependent industry. Then the theory of Port Impact Study and Input-Output Analysis method are used to estimate the value of production and local employment due to the port. It is found that Keelung Port was significantly related to the total population of Keelung City between 1952 and 1973. Between 1973 and 1993, Keelung Port didn't influence total population much, but the employment of local industry was closely related to the tonnage of Keelung Port. Keelung Port has a positive impact to the growth of local industry. It is noted that not only port-dependent industry has significant impacts on Keelung City, but the indirect and i