油電動力混合式車輛發展策略之模糊多準則評估

Abstract

油電動力混合式車輛在能源消耗、污染排放等方面都具有良好特性，在達成完全使用純電動車前之過渡階段，油電動力混合式電動車輛係最能符合民眾需求及環保考量之運輸工具。因此，如何將國際間對油電動力混合式車輛之發展經驗引入國內，並就我國特有環境條件及未來發展之可能性，進行全盤性評估，以擬定推廣策略並訂定管理規範，實為重要之課題。 本研究進行油電動力混合式車輛發展策略之評估時，首先確立一套具有共識性之評估準則與發展策略，並據以進行發展策略之評估。為獲取各相關單位均能認同所擬定之準則與發展策略，本研究利用Delphi調查方法，調查相關領域之專家學者共13位，經由二次調查結果分析，已獲得進一步之共識。為使共識性更高，本研究利用集體討論方式，由專家對已具共識的調查結果進行意見交流，使彼此間之變異（分歧）變小。經由此一週延之過程，本研究得出三個層面19項評估準則及6項發展策略。根據對政府、廠商及消費者三個層面的對象，所做的評估準則相對重要程度評估之問卷調查結果，本研究為利用AHP法求得各評估準則之權重值。最後根據專家對各發展策略在各評估準則下績效值之評定，並利用模糊漢明距離排序法進行各種發展策略之評估，以得到各發展策略之優先順序。根據評估分析結果顯示，大眾運輸公車優先試行策略為未來推動油電動力混合式車輛發展之最佳策略。

Hybrid electric vehicles（HEVs） have an excellent performance in resource consumption and pollution control. In the transitional stage before the overall usage of electric vehicles, HEVs are the most suitable modes to satisfy people's demand and environmental quality. Therefore, how to learn the foreign development experience of HEVs and evaluate the feasibility of HEVs in our country become more and more important for government authorities. Furthermore, it is also important to set up the promotion strategies and corresponding administration policies favoring the usage of HEVs in the future. This study is concerned to first establish a common recognizable evaluation criterion and method while the HEV's developmental strategies are evaluating. We use Delphi survey method to investigate 13 specialists and experts of various field of HEV in order to obtain an agreeable evaluation criteria and developmental strategies. Through taking two surveys and analysis, we have recognition among these experts and specialists. The way of the integrated discussion is used for increasing the common recognition. They discuss their opinions so as to decrease their variations. Consequently, we obtain three aspects with nineteen evaluation criteria and six developmental strategies. According to the results of government, company and consumer about criteria relative importance, we use AHP to evaluate the preferment of criteria. Then, according to the results of expert's judgement about performance of each developmental strategy under the consideration of each criterion, we use the Fuzzy Hamming Distance Ranking method to evaluate the priority of each developmental strategy. In accordance with the result of an integrated evaluation and sensitivity analysis, the development strategy of the transit bus experiment is the most adequate strategy for the development of HEVs.