日間活動人口估算模式之建立-以台北市之銀行業及證券業為例

Abstract

日間活動人口可作為社會經濟活動強度與運輸服務需求之指標。過去國內對於日間活動人口之定義只著重於流進該區域之人口數，而非著重於駐留人口。規劃停車位若使用流進人口，容易高估停車位數而造成資源之浪費；又估算發生災害時之當地人口，若利用流進人口亦容易產生高估之情形。因此，本研究提出駐留人口之概念。駐留人口為該時段之流進人口數減掉流出之人口數加上原有之人口數。 以往日間活動人口之得知，大部分經由實際調查所得，且以就業人口、及業人口、旅次吸引數等資料當作日間活動人口。但是經由實際調查所得之資料並無空間及時間上之移轉性，且無法得知日間活動人口在時空上之變化。因此本研究提出建立日間人口模式之方法，其優點為可知日間活動人口在時空上之變化。對於日間活動人口之定義以駐留人口之概念定義日間活動人口。 調查範圍以台北市商業區之銀行業及證券業為例，調查時間則視兩行業之營業時間而定。由調查資料以迴歸分析方法建立銀行業及證券業之日間活動人口估算模式，並比較此兩行業所吸引之日間活動人口數。 由所求銀行業及證券業之模式可知，銀行業之日間活動人口會受到土地使用分區管制之影響，但不受時間分布之影響；證券業之日間活動人口則是不受時間及土地使用分區管制之影響。而銀行業所吸引之日間活動人口在土地使用為商二時較為顯著，可能是商二地區為路線型商業區，商業活動較為頻繁。另外，證券業每增加一個員工將增加2.353個日間活動人口數，其增加的幅度大於銀行業的1.32個。因此證券業日間活動人口數大於銀行業之日間活動人口數。

The daytime population can be the index of social economic activities of transportation service demand. The definition of daytime population was focused on the flowing-in numbers, while not on the stay-on numbers in the past. The planning of parking pots based on flowing-in numbers would easily cause overestimation and unnecessary waste. Besides, overestimation would also happen on preventing disasters while using flowing-in numbers. Therefore, in this study, stay-on numbers was proposed. It is equal to "flowing-in numbers" minus "flowing-out numbers" in a certain period of time. In the past, most of the daytime population was obtained from survey and used the residential employees, the working people or the numbers of trip attraction as the index. However, data from survey may not be applicable to different areas and periods. So in the study, estimation models of daytime population based on stay-on numbers were established, from which time and area varied daytime population are available. The survey areas are in the commercial zones in Taipei and the survey targets are banks and stocks. The regression models were established to predict daytime population of the banks or the stocks. Finally, the comparisons of the two daytime populations were made. The study concluded that daytime population of banks is affected by land-use regulation, while not by time distribution; daytime population of stocks is not affected by both time and land-use regulation. Daytime population of banks for commercial zone 2 is statistically significant, which may be due to more frequent business activities existing in such street commercial zone. When the employee increases one unit will increase daytime population 2.353 units in the stocks, and 1.32 units in the banks. Thus daytime population of the stocks is larger than that of the banks.