以技術預測方法探討互動式有線電視之發展趨勢

Abstract

由於數位化科技（Digital Technology）以及寬頻網路(Broadband Network)技術的蓬勃發展，使得通訊、資訊和娛樂三大領域紛紛進行整合，在大媒體（Megamedia）潮的推波助瀾下，互動電視備受矚目。雖然其發展過程不如預期，但在寬頻網路建設逐漸完善以及消費者自主性提高的情形下，互動電視漸有死灰復燃的跡象。 有鑑於此，本研究將從技術預測的角度切入，以經濟部技術處（1996）自日本三菱總合研究所引進的技術預測方法（MRI）做為主要架構，輔以其他技術預測方法以及市場學相關理論，建立一極具彈性的系統性方法，探討互動式有線電視的發展趨勢。其研究流程與結論如下： 1.透過試訪可得出消費者最為重視的互動服務項目是「隨選視訊（VOD）」。 2.針對「隨選視訊」進行消費者需求調查，得出消費者重視的「隨選視訊（VOD）」功能依次為「更佳的影音 品質」、「VCR-like功能」、「操作容易」、「反應時間迅速」、「可選擇聲道種類」、「可選擇字幕種類」 、「可試看」、「可自行建立喜好選單」。 3.依據消費者所重視的隨選視訊（VOD）功能項目進行技術調查。本研究發現各項功能可達商業應用的時間點 皆為西元2003-2006年間，且國內商業應用時間會較國外先進國家晚約1-2年，其時間落差應不會太大。而可能 阻礙隨選視訊商業化的因素為技術、成本、以及市場等三項，其中又以成本因素所佔的比例最重，其次為技術 和市場。

The fast development of digital technology and broadband network has created a trend toward the integration of communication, information and entertainment products. Promoted by the trend of Megamedia, interactive TVs are now in the spot light. Though the popularity does not come as quickly as previously expected, interactive TVs are now playing a comeback due to the fact that the infrastructure of broadband network is finally near completion and consumer awareness is growing. In view of the above, this research intends to build a systematic model that incorporates the MRI (a technological forecasting method that Ministry of Economic Affairs introduced from Mitsubishi Economic Research Institute in 1996) as the major framework, complemented by other technological forecasting methods and marketing related theories. This flexible model is applied to explore the development trend of interactive TVs. The research flow and conclusions of this research are summarized as below: 1.The results of the interviews conducted with consumers show that the interactive service that consumers value most is Video On Demand (VOD). 2.With respect to VOD, the features or functions that consumers value, in order of importance to consumers, are "better video-audio quality", "VCR-like function", "ease of use", "time to respond", "types of available channels", "types of available subtitles", "trial view" and "customized menu". 3.The time for the commercial applications of all the above functions will probably fall from 2003 to 2006. Domestic application will be behind overseas by about one year or two. The factors that are obstructing the commercial applications include technology, cost and market. Cost is the most important factor, followed by technology and market.