台灣城際旅行時間可靠度之分析與量測研究

Abstract

旅運者從事運具選擇時，除了重視旅行時間與旅行成本外，能否準時到達目的地亦是一項重要的考量因素。大眾運輸通常都提供了發車時間(有些為明確的時間表，而有些則為發車班距)，部份大眾運輸更提供了抵達目的地的時間(如火車、飛機及部份公路客運之中間站)，然而卻甚少提供可能無法準時到達之相關資訊。因此，對於每趟旅行是否準時抵達目的地，旅運者只能憑著過去經驗加以預估，消費者無疑地已被剝削公平交易之權利。此外，完整且正確表達旅行時間之考靠度及其影響原因，亦有助於運輸業者改進其營運管理以爭取較高之營運績效。基於上述理由，本研究乃嘗試探索旅行時間可靠度之表示及量測方法，並分析旅運者對旅行時間延誤之可容忍程度，最後更以台灣地區城際運輸系統之公路客運、航空及鐵路為例進行實證研究。 本研究首先將旅行時間可靠度分為「發車時間可靠度」、「行駛時間可靠度」及「到達時間可靠度」，其中到達時間可靠度實際上是發車時間可靠度與行駛時間可靠度之總合結果。本研究透過旅運者對上述三種可靠度之重要性的兩兩比較，利用層級分析法（AHP）進行權重計算，發現旅運者最為重視到達時間可靠度，其次為發車時間可靠度。 過去衡量運具準點性的方式多以單一門檻方式，但對於不同旅運者而言，其門檻值應是不同的，因此本研究乃利用累積機率觀念，將運具誤點資料完整的表現，如此能讓旅運者了解運具完整的準點情形，以作為運具選擇考量依據。對於營運者而言，從旅運者感認是否準點之角度來建立是否準點之門檻值可能更具意義。本研究利用模糊隸屬度觀念建立旅運者感認的準點度與對於誤點的容忍度，此結果可作為營運者衡量運具的服務績效與準點品質的指標。本研究最後更依據所建立之衡量指標計算出台灣城際間運具－國內航空、台鐵、台汽及小汽車之運具準點情形，及旅運者對於各種運具旅行時間可靠度的感認資料。本研究所得到之研究結果足以提供運輸業者改善服務品質之參考，也可作為日後探討誤點賠償研究之依據。

The travel time reliability is as important as travel time and travel cost in mode choice. Travelers realize it just by experience or mass communication, because the transit operators usually only offer the departure time reliability even nothing before. By the fair-trade lows, consumers' rights already have been infringed. If we show the travel time reliability completely and clearly, travelers will appreciate the travel time reliability of transit and it is helpful for heir mode choice. This study divides the travel time reliability into the departure time reliability, the running time reliability and the arrival time reliability. The punctuality of arrival time is determined by those of departure time and running time. By computing the weights with Analytic Hierarchy Process, we know the travelers think the arrival time reliability is the most important, and the departure time reliability is posterior. It indicates the running time reliability is important for the travelers except the departure time reliability. We usually measured the punctuality of transit with single threshold, however, the thresholds are different for various modes and individuals in fact. This study suggests the cumulative probability of travel time delay should be a good index to represent the reliability of travel time. For the operators, the threshold of travel time delay is reasonably determined by the travelers' cognizance. Thus we establish the delay threshold by the membership function of travelers' perception. Finally, in order to present the idea of punctuality, an empirical study was conducted to measure the punctuality of domestic airlines, intercity railway and bus transportation. The study result provides the basic information for transit operators to improve their transportation service, and collects the required data for discussing the refunding policy for travel time delays.