高速鐵路各路段運量與列車停站方式、票價及班次策略關係之研究

Abstract

高速鐵路之供給特性如列車停站方式、票價、班次策略是規劃高速鐵路系統營運計劃的重要因素。過去有關鐵路系統服務計劃之研究，大多假設旅運需求為外生變數的情形下，依據鐵路之供給特性來制定各級列車服務計劃，而未針對列車供給策略變動所產生對各時區各路段旅客之列車選擇行為進行分析。此外，高速鐵路將來營運後必然與傳統鐵路在市場上有高度的重疊性，因此，高速鐵路系統各種營運列車之實際載客數，將是經由整個鐵路系統供需互動所產生的結果。是故，探討高鐵供給特性在傳鐵競爭下與旅客需求特性間的互動關係，將是營運者未來制定服務計畫時的重要課題。本研究第一部份為各時區兩列車競爭下之市場範圍分析，依據一般化總旅行「時間」成本最小為旅客選擇列車之依據，並以此市場範圍分析為基礎，構建高鐵在考量各路段運量與列車票價、停站方式與班次策略關係下之利潤最大化數學規劃模式。第二部份則為各時區多列車競爭下之市場範圍分析，改以一般化總旅行「金錢」成本最小來探討旅客列車選擇之行為，並藉由此市場範圍分析模式為基礎撰寫程式，進而分析高速鐵路系統服務計劃中列車停站方式、票價及班次變動對各路段高鐵旅運需求量之影響，其後再從需求特性之角度探討車內外時間價值比、時間價值分佈與商務旅次所占之比率改變對高鐵於各時區與各路段之運量、獲利的影響及其相對應之高鐵發車策略。 最後，以台灣現有之鐵路市場與即將新建之高速鐵路系統為例，印証理論模式之實用性。研究結果顯示對各級列車進行票價區隔將可使高鐵之獲利較大。而班次間隔愈大，高鐵列車彼此間的競爭性將減少。此外，旅客時間價值變動將對不同停站方式列車之需求量產生影響；然對高鐵短程運量而言，其商務旅次占所有旅次之比率對其運量之影響極微。本研究結果除了更能正確預測高鐵在不同供給策略下可獲得之各路段運量外，並能做為將來高速鐵路營運計劃中之列車停站方式、定價與排班營運之參考。

The supply attributes of High Speed Rail (HSR) such as train stopping scheme and schedule, fare and frequency strategies are the major components of HSR operational plan and have a great influence on its ridership. Previous studies on rail service scheme mostly assumed travel demand as an exogenous variable, and didn’t consider the interaction between supply strategies and travel demand. Furthermore, the HSR line is usually planned to be highly overlapped with the existing Conventional Rail (CR) corridors so as to serve the major market, since these corridors typically have large markets concentrated around and between the major cities. So, the train’s actual ridership on each link would be the results of demand-supply interaction for the whole HSR and CR network. Therefore, addressing the problems of how passengers react for each proposed service plan under the CR competition and how the HSR train ridership on each link is affected by passenger’s demand characteristics such as the value of time distribution, origin and destination pattern, etc. become important. In the first part of this study, we explore the situation that two trains compete one another on each link they serve and analyze how different HSR stopping schedule, frequency and fare strategies affect the HSR travel demand, market share and operator's operating profits under CR competition. Under the assumption of given CR schedules and fares, passengers’ optimal train choices are decided by minimizing their “generalized total travel time”, which is composed of different travel time components and fare, and a profit maximization mathematical programming model is formulated to determine the optimal dispatching sequence of different stopping scheme trains. In the second part, the study further continues to aim at the situation that three trains compete simultaneously on each link they serve. In this case we assume the optimal train choice of a passenger is decided by minimizing his “generalized total travel cost” instead of “generalized total travel time” to make the market share analysis under different HSR supply strategies easier. Then, the study further explore the effects of changes in passenger’s demand characteristics such as the value of time distribution, business/leisure trip ratio, etc. on HSR train’s dispatch strategies, ridership on each link and operator's operating profits. Finally, a case study and sensitivity analysis are described by using CR and proposed HSR in Taiwan west corridor as an example to illustrate the application of the models. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The strategy with discriminating fares for different stopping scheme trains would lead HSR to obtain more ridership and profits than those without. 2. When HSR train dispatch frequency is low, HSR train’s competition is decreased and then it is appropriate to dispatch trains with different skip-stop services. 3. For short-haul trips, business/leisure trip ratio has little influence on HSR train’s ridership. In conclusion, this study analyze the relationship among ridership, train stopping schedule, fare and frequency strategies for HSR, and the results can be used as guidelines on determining the optimal operational plans for HSR operators.