利率自由化對臺灣製造業資本配置的影響

Abstract

近年來在西方自由市場經濟思潮的主導之下，為因應貿易部門的擴展與自由貿易開放之需求，以及同步調節國內變遷中經濟與金融環境的衝擊，以因應經濟發展的需求。自1980年起，我國便不斷積極地推動一連串放寬與解除金融管制等金融改革政策。例如：外匯市場與資本帳的逐步自由化、金融業務與制度的鬆綁，及廢除管理利率上下限規定等利率自由化措施。期使市場機能逐步取代政府的管制，以建立一個有效率且開放的金融市場，促進國內金融機構改善經營體質、提高經營效率，發揮應有的中介功能；並且增進資金的有效分配，進一步促使產業配置效率的提昇與經濟的成長。在學理上，利率自由化以後，貨幣政策將透過利率的變動影響消費支出的成本、投資的成本、及財富價值的變動，進一步影響消費與投資的水準，因而發揮其貨幣政策的效果。因此，利率的變動在貨幣政策效果的傳遞過程中，扮演十分重要的角色。惟上述自由化措施在國內實施的具體成效，仍有待進一步實證結果予以驗證。 過去探討財金政策在經濟發展中扮演的重要角色，其相關理論與實證研究均指出：金融自由化(financial liberalization)是提昇國內儲蓄與投資水準並促進資本效率分配之有效途徑。然而有關自由化政策之有效性一直是「事前儲蓄學派(prior savings school)」與「強迫儲蓄學派(forced savings school)」兩大學派的爭辯重點，亦為財務經濟學域研究之熱門課題。其中以Keynes (1937)為主的傳統學派主張：低利率政策才能刺激投資水準，以達到提昇經濟成長率之目的。另一方面，McKinnon (1973) & Shaw (1973)等則針對強制性低利率上限政策提出強烈的駁斥。指出開發中國家在政府的金融管制之下（如訂定利率上限等），將限制可貸資金之額度，造成金融資產均衡價格的扭曲，使得經濟發展更加惡化。因此，他們建議在較高的實質利率之下，始能有效地透過規模效果與配置效率效果，促進開發中國家提高儲蓄率與可貸資金額度，並且提升貸款資金之配置效率，以進一步促進經濟的成長。惟上述學派爭辯之論點，在實證上仍未獲得一致性的結論。 有鑑於此，本研究根據Gupta & Lensink (1996)提出的兩部門模型(two-sector model)，透過我國金融市場特性的分析，例如：(1)合法與地下金融市場並存的現況；(2)地下金融市場之存款(im)與貸款利率(r)呈線性關係，亦即im= -3.8184 + 0.9529r；以及 (3)當合法與地下金融市場存在資訊不對稱現象時，則合法金融市場之存、放款與地下金融市場的貸款間為不可替代之關係；將該模式加以修飾並釋放上述假設，以評估利率自由化前後之配置效率效果。本研究發現：本文提出的分析模型中，無須設定上述嚴格的限制條件，而使模式假設較符合一般開發中國家金融市場的特性。此外，此修正後模型在評估配置效率方面，仍獲致與原兩部門模式相當的推論結果。因此，本研究提出的「修正模型」為適合一般開發中國家評估利率自由化效果之模式。換言之，本研究主要藉由此修正模型以探討：利率自由化措施如何影響大型資產與中小型資產製造業之資本投資，是否亦造成其配置效率之改變？暨驗算其影響的程度與內涵；並進一步驗證McKinnon (1973)主張的「促進資本累積假說」在國內實證之可信度。 由民國70年至民國86年間資料之實證結果顯示，在合法與地下金融市場方面：利率自由化前(民國70年至民國78年)與自由化後(民國79年至民國86年)，實質存放款利率在結構上均未呈現顯著的差異。隱含利率自由化前後，兩市場的實質存款與貸款利率之調整速度出現延遲現象而略呈現僵固性。然而，自由化後兩市場之平均實質存款與貸款利率均呈現上升的趨勢，而變異程度則有減緩的趨勢。此外，合法與地下金融市場間之貸款利率均顯著地高於存款利率，其中存、放款利率之差異分別為3.2405%及4.7852%，意謂著兩市場存在資訊不對稱的現象。 在產業資本投資方面：分別就大型資產、中小型資產製造業以及全體製造業而言，發現利率自由化前後實質資本存量淨額在結構上均呈現顯著的差異現象，而且自由化後其平均實質資本存量淨額亦均呈現顯著的提昇現象。顯示解除利率管制之後，確能充分發揮資本投資的規模效果，亦進一步證明McKinnon (1973)所主張的「促進資本累積假說」之有效性在我國實證上可獲致驗證。在配置效率方面，經重複測度設計檢定後顯示：利率自由化前後配置效率在結構上並未呈現顯著的差異現象。 經進一步透過本研究建構之含虛擬變數複迴歸模式分析後顯示：利率自由化前後，配置效率與實質存款利率的關聯性呈現顯著的差異現象。顯示放寬利率管制並減少政府干預之後，確能發揮貸款資金重新配置之功效，以提昇資金的投資分配效率；亦符合修正模式之推論。再進一步探討配置效率效果增加或減少之影響程度，經本研究建構之時間序列複迴歸模式分析結果顯示：利率自由化前、後，實質存款利率與配置效率呈現正向的變化關係，即β1= 19.406 (已達10%顯著水準)。顯示我國實證上的現象亦符合McKinnon (1973)所主張：「較高的實質利率有助於資本的累積」之說。然而，該配置效率提昇現象並無法持續，反而有逐漸下跌之趨勢。經統計分析後顯示：利率自由化前、後，配置效率的平均值由10.2465降低到1.1458。上述結果隱含：利率自由化後，在較高的實質存款利率之下，配置效率反而呈現下降的現象；反之亦然。由此現象進一步推論：我國曾採取Keynes等人所主張之低利率政策。 由上述文獻探討與國內實證結果推論：由於國內財金體制長久以來受政府利率干預政策的影響，利率水準依然透過由上而下的途徑加以調整；或貨幣政策之調整未必順應市場供需情勢之變動，因延遲效果而略呈現僵固性，致使利率自由化效果未能充分顯現。再加上國內金融中介機構長期的寡佔行為，以及地下金融市場仍普遍存在等現況，使得資金的錯誤配置現象仍舊無法消除。因此，我國利率自由化政策在短期內的確有助於促進資本的累積，以發揮資本之配置效率。但長期而言，並不能保證配置效率之持續提昇。

In recent years, the rapid growth of Taiwan economy has resulted in several issues that have some impacts on the economic and financial environment. In order to accompany with the changing of local economic and financial condition to meet the needs of economic development, and to develop Taiwan as a regional financial center as well, both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in Taiwan have actively promoted financial liberalization and internationalization policies; such as the deregulation of the banking system, the removal of interest rate controls, and the abolition of administratively determined credit ceilings, etc. These policies are proposed to improve the resource mobilization, to operate enterprises efficiently, and to enhance the allocative efficiency of industry. All of these promote the economic growth together. However, the effects of the above deregulation are not quite clear empirically. This study proposes a modified model to embed in the characteristics of financial markets in Taiwan, in which a large-scale and medium-small scale manufacturing sector as well as an organized and a curb banking market are identified simultaneously. The aim of this dissertation is to assess the effects of interest rates deregulation on the investment behavior of both large-scale and medium-small manufacturing sectors. A model is proposed to emphasize that there exists a linear relationship between deposit rate and loan rate of curb market in Taiwan empirically, based on the data from 1981 to 1997. That is, . Furthermore, the demand for curb deposits is not credit-constrained; besides, the organized deposit and credit are not substitutes for curb credit, which are all very important factors of financial markets in Taiwan. It is argued that higher interest rates would induce the selection of projects with higher rates of return, and also shows the condition under which allocative efficiency might be improved by the deregulation of interest rates in Taiwan. Thus, the average productivity of investment is raised, and also results in greater growth. The empirical results are quite consistent with the arguments of the McKinnon & Shaws' capital-accumulation-augmenting hypothesis and the Gupta & Lensink model, both of which argued that financial liberalization would encourage greater allocative efficiency. From 1989 to 1990, when the Taiwan banking law was revised and the ceiling and floor on lending rate were entirely removed, our government started to implement various financial liberalization reforms. The empirical evidence shows that higher deposit rates on organized market have been shifted resources from medium-small sector to the modern technological sector, in which resulted in the improvement of allocative efficiency from 0.8374 to 28.3741 since 1989. Unfortunately, the allocative efficiency declined dramatically from 28.3741 to -14.5073 from 1990 to 1991. It shows that deregulation does not always guarantee an improvement in overall allocative efficiency, when there exists a curb financial market such as Taiwan. The above empirical findings could be attributed to the followings: (a) Due to the misguided interest rate intervention policy by the government, such as the establishment of some sort of credit rationing system, Taiwan's financial markets are not completely deregulated. (b) The oligopoly behavior is experienced on the part of the banking and financial intermediate system, and (c) a curb-banking sector is still existing in Taiwan's financial markets.